The cinnamon market has entered a phase of volatility as weak buying interest from both domestic industry and export channels has triggered notable price declines this week. With traders quoting cinnamon at USD 2.64–2.72 per kg—reflecting a decrease of almost USD 1.20 per 100 kg from last week’s levels—market sentiment has turned decisively bearish. The dip is widely attributed to reduced industrial purchases and a standby stance from major exporters, many of whom are delaying procurement amid expectations of further price softness. Sentiment is compounded by adequate stock availability, which limits any upward pressure on prices in the absence of large-scale buying orders.
The current market balance points to cautious behavior from stockists as they await new cues, particularly from international buyers. Without fresh export deals emerging, traders anticipate prices will remain subdued. This aligns with broader signals from key producing regions, with adequate supply but lackluster demand prevailing in the short term. Weather and crop development will be closely monitored over coming weeks, as any unexpected disruptions could provide the only significant catalyst for a market turnaround. For now, however, sellers are bracing for a continued challenging pricing environment.
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Cinnamon
cassias sticks
FOB 7.20 €/kg
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cassia split
FOB 2.62 €/kg
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Cinnamon
cassia powder
FOB 4.85 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices & Market Overview
| Product | Type | Origin | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cinnamon | cassias sticks, organic | India | 7.20 | 0.00 | Bearish |
| Cinnamon | cassia split | Vietnam | 2.62 | 0.00 | Bearish |
| Cinnamon | cassia powder, organic | India | 4.85 | 0.00 | Bearish |
| Cinnamon | cassia cigarette | Vietnam | 4.97 | 0.00 | Bearish |
| Cinnamon | cassia broken | Vietnam | 2.05 | 0.00 | Bearish |
| Ceylon cinnamon | sticks, organic | India | 7.65 | 0.00 | Bearish |
| Ceylon cinnamon | powder, organic | India | 7.10 | 0.00 | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Supply: Supplies remain adequate in the key origins (India, Vietnam), with no major supply concerns reported. Consistent arrivals and no logistical disruptions support current inventories.
- Demand: Both domestic spice processors and export firms have slowed purchases. Many buyers expect further price reductions and are delaying procurement, increasing the likelihood of extended price softness.
- Exports: Export inquiries are limited. Bulk export deals have yet to surface, and this lack of large orders is a key driver for the current market malaise.
📊 Fundamental Market Drivers
- Price Pressure: Downward movement driven by sluggish demand and wait-and-watch stance by stockists.
- Industrial Buying: Weak interest from food processors and spice manufacturers, amplifying the bearish tone.
- Speculator Activity: Traders and middlemen are largely staying out of the market or liquidating positions in anticipation of further declines.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India: Normal monsoon conditions have sustained good growing conditions for both cassia and Ceylon cinnamon. No reports of adverse weather disrupting harvests.
- Vietnam: Moderate rainfall is forecast in the Central Highlands and northern provinces, but this is expected to be beneficial for tree health rather than disruptive.
- Short-Term Impact: Weather is expected to support crop maintenance and yield, further reinforcing the outlook for stable supply in coming weeks.
🌏 Global Stocks & Production Comparison
| Country | Production (2024 est, tonnes) | Stock Level (2024 est, tonnes) | Export Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 42,000 | 11,500 | 34 |
| Indonesia | 38,000 | 10,000 | 29 |
| India | 31,000 | 9,200 | 22 |
| Sri Lanka | 19,500 | 3,400 | 11 |
| China | 8,500 | 2,700 | 4 |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers should be patient; further price softening possible in the absence of a demand revival.
- Sellers may consider holding back large lots until signs of export demand improvement appear.
- Exporters should closely monitor emerging orders from South Asia, Middle East, and Europe for signs of potential market turnaround.
- Short-term traders may explore selective buying on sharp dips but should avoid aggressive long positions until sentiment shifts.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Product | Forecasted Price Range (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (India) | Cassia sticks (organic) | 7.10 – 7.25 | Soft/Bearish |
| Hanoi (Vietnam) | Cassia split | 2.55 – 2.65 | Soft/Bearish |
| New Delhi (India) | Cassia powder (organic) | 4.75 – 4.90 | Soft/Bearish |