Clove Market 2025: Steady Growth Amid Climate Volatility and Changing Trade Patterns

The global clove market in 2025 is showing notable resilience, maintaining robust growth even as climate-related disruptions test the stability of established supply chains. Currently estimated at $5.7 billion, the market is set to expand further, projected to reach $7.2 billion by 2030. This growth is fuelled by unyielding global demand for natural flavorings, essential oils, and health-driven applications in both the food and wellness industries. Indonesia, long regarded as the primary anchor of global clove supply, continues to set the pace, but recent production challenges—primarily driven by extreme weather in key regions like Ternate and Haruku Island—are prompting buyers to seek alternative sources such as Madagascar, Tanzania, and several emerging African suppliers.

Producers are grappling with significant challenges: erratic rainfall, excessive heat, and storms have slashed Indonesian yields by as much as 40% in certain districts, and have pushed prices upward both at origin and in major retail markets. Yet, the market’s underlying fundamentals remain strong—buoyed by steadfast demand from the food sector, traditional medicine, perfumery, and the kretek cigarette manufacturing industry in Indonesia. The expanding health and wellness sector is further supporting price strength, especially as buyers seek out certified organic and traceable products, often paying a premium for guaranteed quality and transparency. As we move into the second half of 2025, the imperative for climate resilience, transparency, and diversified supply chains is clearer than ever, setting the tone for a cautiously optimistic outlook in the global spice trade.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Last Week (EUR/kg)	Change	Sentiment
Cloves	Whole (Organic)	India	New Delhi	9.40	9.45	-0.05	Steady
Cloves	Ground (Organic)	India	New Delhi	9.50	9.55	-0.05	Stable

• Export prices globally: 5.30–7.40 USD/kg depending on quality and origin (2025)
• Retail prices remain elevated in Europe and North America, partly due to ongoing weather-related and logistical challenges

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Leading Producers: Indonesia (70,000–75,000 tonnes/year), Madagascar, Tanzania, Sri Lanka, Comoros
• Africa’s market share is rising as buyers diversify supply
• Indonesia’s 2025 harvest suffered yield losses up to 40% in some districts due to adverse weather
• Strong demand from the food industry, traditional medicines, perfumery, and kretek cigarettes; fast-growing use in wellness products
• Rising consumer interest in organic, certified, and traceable cloves, especially in Europe and North America

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Valuation: $5.7 billion (2025), projected to $7.2 billion by 2030
• Demand Growth: Driven by health sector, increased applications of clove oil (dental, aromatherapy, skincare)
• Supply Risks: Weather volatility, logistical bottlenecks, and rising production costs
• Traceability: Premiums available for organic and digital traceable supplies
• Speculative Positioning: Stable, with buyers focusing on long-term contracts and supplier diversification to manage volatility

🌦️ Weather & Harvest Outlook

• Indonesia: Persistent irregular rainfall and heatwaves in the Moluccas and Sulawesi continue to disrupt flowering and drying, threatening output through Q3 2025
• Madagascar & Tanzania: Generally favorable growing conditions; moderate rainfall seen supporting better-than-average yields in 2025
• Short-Term Outlook: Weather risks linger; close monitoring is advised for procurement teams

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	Annual Output (tonnes)	Trend
Indonesia	70,000–75,000	Decreasing (weather risks)
Madagascar	35,000–40,000	Increasing
Tanzania	7,500–10,000	Stable/Rising
Sri Lanka	~3,000	Stable
Comoros	~2,500	Stable

• Major Importers: India, EU, USA, Middle East
• Stock Levels: Tight in Southeast Asia, more availability in Africa

📆 Trading & Price Forecast

• Secure long-term contracts to lock in supply and manage pricing risk
• Prioritize suppliers with organic certification and digital traceability for premium markets
• Closely monitor weather updates in Indonesia and Madagascar in coming weeks
• Consider diversification of supplier base—Africa is positioned as a strategic alternative
• Watch for policy updates in key import markets (esp. Europe/USA food safety and traceability)

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Date	New Delhi FOB Whole (EUR/kg)	New Delhi FOB Ground (EUR/kg)	Export Average (USD/kg)
2025-07-20	9.40	9.50	6.40
2025-07-21	9.38 – 9.42	9.48 – 9.52	6.30 – 6.45
2025-07-22	9.37 – 9.45	9.47 – 9.54	6.30 – 6.50

• Spot market expected to remain steady due to robust demand and cautious trading
• Exporters may push for higher offers if Southeast Asian supplies tighten further