Clove Market Analysis: Stable Prices Amid Tight Global Supply and Festive Demand

The clove market is experiencing a phase of stability, with robust fundamentals underpinning price levels across key Indian markets. Restricted import volumes—especially from major origins like Comoros, Madagascar, and Indonesia—have contributed to constrained arrivals, yet steady consumer demand in large trading centers such as Mumbai, Delhi, and Kolkata has helped support prices. This delicate balance between supply and demand has so far prevented significant price volatility, despite occasional supply-side pressures.

Stockists and retailers have commenced gradual restocking activities in advance of the upcoming festive season, further reinforcing the market’s underlying strength. Prices in the wholesale segment remain firm, a trend likely to persist given the ongoing tightness in international supply chains and the absence of aggressive price dumping from overseas. For market participants, this climate offers minimal downside risk and signals continued bullish momentum at least through year-end, barring any dramatic shifts in global crop patterns or unexpected supply shocks.

📈 Prices

Market/Origin	Product	Latest Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Delhi (IN)	Whole	$9.85–$10.10/kg	Stable	Bullish
Kolkata (IN)	Whole	$9.60–$9.85/kg	Stable	Firm
Comoros (CIF)	Whole	$8.65–$9.10/kg	Stable	Supportive
Madagascar/Indonesia (CIF)	Whole	$9.25–$9.50/kg	Stable	Supportive
India (New Delhi) [EUR]	Whole (Organic, FOB)	€9.40/kg	Stable	Firm
India (New Delhi) [EUR]	Ground (Organic, FOB)	€9.50/kg	Stable	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: Import volumes remain tight amid stable to lower arrivals. International supply from key origins is firming export prices due to continued global tightness.
• Demand: Steady from food, flavor, and pharmaceutical sectors, with additional festive uptick expected in the coming months.
• Restocking: Wholesalers and retailers are gradually replenishing stocks ahead of heightened festival-driven buying.

📊 Fundamentals

• Main Drivers: Stable global inventories, firming CIF offers, limited import shipments, and strategic restocking by Indian market participants.
• USDA/Crop Reports: No significant increase reported in clove acreage among major producers this cycle; supply disruptions in some African origins continue to weigh on spot market tightness.
• Speculative Positioning: Minimal speculative activity with most market players taking a cautious, stock-maintenance approach.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

• Indonesia: Favorable weather patterns post-monsoon have aided clove flowering; however, excessive rainfall in certain islands may dampen harvest recovery in select belts.
• Madagascar: Normal to above-normal precipitation is supporting healthy clove bud development, positioning the country for potentially steady exports unless late-season weather disrupts drying/harvesting phases.
• Comoros/Africa: Dry spells in some areas have trimmed yields, contributing to overall market tightness.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024 Output (est.)	Global Share (%)	Stock Trend
Indonesia	~80,000 MT	65%	Stable to firm
Madagascar	~19,000 MT	16%	Stable
Comoros	~11,000 MT	9%	Stable
Others (Zanzibar, Sri Lanka, India)	~12,000 MT	10%	Tight

🔎 Last Market Report Comparison

• Price stability persists, mirroring prior reports—but the current outlook is more bullish given proactive restocking and no major new supply risks resolved.
• Import arrivals remain limited; last report noted slight import uptick that failed to materialize into significant market easing.

🪙 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain inventory coverage for medium term; spot buying is advised before the festive demand spike.
• Sellers are recommended to hold for possible price gains if international supply interruptions persist.
• Buyers: Secure forward positions, particularly for high-grade cloves, as replacement costs are unlikely to fall sharply before year-end.
• Importers: Watch for global trade signals from Indonesia and Madagascar; opportunistic buys possible on minor crop surpluses.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product	Price Range (USD/kg)	Forecast Bias
Delhi (IN)	Whole	9.85 – 10.15	Stable to firm
Kolkata (IN)	Whole	9.60 – 9.90	Stable
CIF (IN)	Comoros	8.75 – 9.15	Stable