CMB MARKET REPORT – ALMONDS

California Almond Board Position Report – November 2025
Date: December 2025

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1. Executive Summary

The latest Almond Board of California (ABC) position report shows a significant slowdown in November shipments, with total volumes declining to 220.5 million lbs, down 18.7% from last year’s 271.3 million lbs. Both domestic and export markets contributed to the decline, with exports falling more sharply.

Year-to-date shipments remain 9.5% below last season.
Crop receipts continue to lag due to weather-related delays, reinforcing expectations of a materially smaller 2025/26 crop, likely 2.60–2.75 billion lbs, well below the earlier 3.0-billion-lb objective estimate.

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2. November Shipments Overview

Category	Million Pounds	% Change
Domestic	47.3	−13%
Export	173.1	−20.2%
Total	220.5	−18.7%

Exports continue to shoulder most of the weakness, with several major destinations shifting volumes against last year.

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3. Top Export Markets – November 2025

Country	Nov 2025 (M lbs)	Nov 2024 (M lbs)	Change
India	26.2	20.2	↑ strong growth
Spain	14.8	20.6	↓ sharp drop
Turkey	17.6	13.5	↑ solid increase
U.A.E.	13.7	16.5	↓ weaker demand
Vietnam	12.3	7.8	↑ strong growth
Italy	10.3	7.7	↑ continued strength

Key takeaway: The Indian subcontinent and parts of Asia remain growth engines for inshell and kernel shipments, while Europe remains more cautious and undercovered.

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4. Crop Receipts & Size Outlook

• Current crop receipts: 2.187 billion lbs, down 6.6% from last season’s 2.432 billion lbs.
• Wet harvest conditions slowed huller/sheller throughput in October and November.
• As a result, final crop clarity will likely shift from early January to early February.

Industry expectations:

• 2.60–2.75 billion lbs total crop
• Far below the former 3.0-billion-lb objective estimate

This smaller crop is supportive to market sentiment and may tighten availability later in the season.

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5. Year-to-Date Shipments

• Current YTD: 824 million lbs
• Last Year: 911 million lbs
• Change: −9.5%

YTD performance reflects a slower global demand environment combined with logistical constraints and buyer caution, particularly in Europe.

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6. Industry News – Major Policy Change

The Almond Board of Directors has voted to eliminate the Objective Crop Estimate starting in 2026.
Going forward, there will be only one annual estimate, which marks a major structural shift for the industry.

Implications:

• Less mid-season supply guidance for markets
• Potentially higher volatility during the summer period
• Increased reliance on subjective estimates and industry intelligence

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7. Market Activity & Sold Position

• New sales in November: 204.2 million lbs (vs. 209 million lbs last year)
• Industry sold position:
  • 43.9% on a 2.7-billion-lb crop
  • 45.3% if the crop is only 2.6 billion lbs

India has been notably aggressive in inshell purchasing recently, despite only 832 loads imported in November.
With low inventory in the domestic market, Indian prices remain at a premium, supporting U.S. inshell demand.

Europe remains undercovered for Q1 and is expected to re-enter the market soon, which may stimulate kernel demand.

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8. December Shipment Outlook

Early indications suggest strong December shipment numbers, though holiday logistics, vessel rollovers, and port congestion may impact final tallies.

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9. Weather Update

• Early harvest rains in September and October caused delays.
• Recent weeks have been mostly dry, aiding final crop movement.
• Snowpack remains extremely low — even Lake Tahoe ski areas have not opened, reflecting a very dry early winter.
  This is notable for long-term water-availability monitoring.

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10. Market Outlook

Bullish factors:

• Smaller crop (2.60–2.75B lbs)
• Tightening inshell supply, particularly for India
• Europe expected to return to cover Q1 gaps
• Rising PK premiums in India and Vietnam

Bearish factors:

• Shipment pace still behind last year
• Some buyers delaying coverage, expecting more price softness
• Macro uncertainty in freight and global economic conditions

Overall Assessment:
The market is transitioning from oversupply toward a more balanced structure. Price stability is improving, but demand recovery must strengthen for sustained upside.

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11. Availability

Current spot availability includes:

• NPX
• IND X
• Carmel Type Supreme
• NP Inshell
• Indy Inshell
• Monterey Inshell
• Additional kernel and inshell grades available on request

Please advise on specific needs.