Coconut Market Analysis August 2025: Firm Prices, Supply Tensions & Weather Risks

The global coconut market is entering a period of heightened volatility and strength, marked by persistent demand and mounting supply headwinds across key product segments. Prices for desiccated coconut remain firm, averaging approximately 3% higher than the previous quarter, with robust appetite from Europe underpinning values for both premium and lower grades. Coconut oil markets—particularly virgin coconut oil—continue to achieve solid premiums, with current prices in the USD 5.30–5.65/liter range. Supply-side dynamics are the central theme.

Indonesian coconut processors are contending with both adverse weather-induced yield reductions and unrelenting demand from China, which has absorbed the vast majority of Indonesia’s exports in early 2025. This confluence of factors is squeezing available stocks across the supply chain and fueling further price appreciation. Looking ahead, all eyes are on the weather forecast, as the upcoming typhoon season could bring dramatic effects both for yield outcomes and pricing dynamics. Experts suggest that continued scarcity of fresh coconuts will likely support elevated price levels for both desiccated coconut and coconut oil, though producers may seek to liquidate stocks to hedge against the risk of demand shocks or potential logistical bottlenecks brought on by extreme weather events.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Coconut dried (flakes)	Conventional	Vietnam	Hanoi, VN	FOB	4.62	0%	Firm
Coconut dried (flakes)	Organic	Philippines	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	3.06	0%	Firm
Coconut dried (flakes)	Conventional	Philippines	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	2.68	0%	Firm
Coconut dried (desiccated medium)	Conventional	Indonesia	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	1.93	0%	Firm
Coconut dried (desiccated)	Conventional	Indonesia	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	1.96	0%	Firm
Coconut Oil (Virgin)	(bulk)	Major Exporters	Global	—	~5.30–5.65 USD/liter	+5% YoY	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• European demand: Remains robust, with premium paid for high-quality desiccated coconut. Lower grades also see persistent support due to limited supply.
• Chinese imports: China absorbed 96% of Indonesia’s coconut exports Jan–Feb 2025 (~68,000 MT), constraining supply for other buyers.
• Supply shortages: Indonesian processors face mounting shortages as yields fall and raw material is exported.
• Producers’ response: Move to sell stocks before typhoon season risk increases.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production: Indonesia (main exporter) is harvesting below average due to adverse weather, compounding global supply tightness.
• Stocks: On-hand inventories are low. Merchants and processors report running stocks down to critical levels.
• Speculative activity: Not significant, market moves remain fundamentally driven.

⛅ Weather & Outlook

• Southeast Asia: Reports indicate unusually dry conditions in Indonesia and Philippines, reducing coconut yields further.
• Typhoon risk: Forecasts project higher-than-average typhoon activity in the remainder of August and into September across major coconut growing areas (Philippines/Indonesia). This could disrupt harvests and transportation.
• Europe: Stable weather; no immediate logistics risks.

Potential impact: If weather risk materializes, global shortages of desiccated coconuts and oil could deepen, putting further upward pressure on prices through Q3 2025 and beyond. However, adverse weather could also spur short-term selling as producers rush to move stocks before infrastructure is threatened.

🌐 Production & Stocks: Key Regions

Country	Production 2024E (‘000 MT)	2025 Forecast (‘000 MT)	Change (%)	Key Comments
Indonesia	17,600	16,500*	-6.3%	Adverse weather; export surge to China
Philippines	14,400	13,900*	-3.5%	Weather risks; steady EU demand
India	12,300	12,250	-0.4%	Stable, less exposed to weather
Vietnam	2,700	~2,600	-3.7%	Moderate weather impact

*Projected due to ongoing weather impacts and export flows.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🌟 Sellers: Take advantage of current high prices to sell stocks ahead of the typhoon season to avoid potential inventory disruptions.
• 🌟 Buyers: Secure forward contracts for Q3 and early Q4 needs, as further tightening is likely if weather risks play out.
• 🌟 Industrial/processors: Monitor Chinese import pace and Southeast Asia weather updates closely—have contingency sourcing plans.
• ⚠️ Risk management: Watch for logistics bottlenecks during adverse weather; prioritize stockpiling in destination markets.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Date	Desiccated Coconut (EUR/kg, NL FCA)	Coconut Oil (USD/liter, FOB major ports)	Market Sentiment
Aug 15, 2025	1.96–3.06	5.45	Bullish
Aug 16, 2025	1.98–3.07	5.48	Bullish
Aug 17, 2025	1.98–3.10	5.50	Steady/Bullish