The global coffee market in the middle of 2024 is a showcase of paradoxes and volatility: surging export values alongside tightening supplies, persistent regulatory and weather risks, and fast-evolving trade flows. India, recently classified as ‘low risk’ under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), saw its coffee exports cross the billion-dollar mark within the first five months of 2024, even though export volumes still trail last year’s levels. With European buyers now enforcing early EUDR compliance, Indian exporters are navigating simplified due diligence for the EU, while facing cost and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, both Arabica and Robusta prices have eased from their April highs after the USDA reported improved production prospects in top origins, but the underlying picture remains bullish: global inventories are at multi-year lows, and weather anomalies in India and Brazil keep supply nerves exposed. The robusta harvest in Brazil, Indonesia, and Uganda is adding to immediate supply, encouraging speculators to unwind bullish positions. Unprecedented demand from Europe and the US, especially Vietnam’s sharply higher-value exports, underlines persistent tightness. With global harvests recovering but Indian output slipping due to adverse pre-monsoon rains, and with new compliance regimes about to reshape EU trade, coffee’s near-term outlook is nuanced: expect price volatility with structural tightness as the dominant theme.
📈 Prices
| Exchange | Contract | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE NY (Arabica) | July 2024 | USD 2.23/lb | -2.5% | Bearish |
| ICE London (Robusta) | July 2024 | USD 4,050/ton | -1.1% | Neutral |
| Vietnam (Spot Robusta) | July 2024 | USD 5,100–5,650/ton | +4.1% | Very Bullish |
| India (Avg. export price) | Jan–June 2024 | USD 4.67/kg | +46% y/y | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- EUDR compliance: Early adoption by EU buyers is disrupting some Indian shipments, especially robusta, although ‘low risk’ status now eases paperwork and risk mitigation needs 【6:7†full-posts-2025.json】.
- Global supply: Harvests in Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam are improving near-term prospects, yet stocks remain tight, keeping underlying support for prices 【6:8†full-posts-2025.json】.
- Speculative position: Speculators are unwinding after recent peaks, but structural tightness is likely to resume bullish pressure later in the season.
- Indian exports: Shipment value up 30–46% YoY, but volumes trailing. Indian farmers have withheld stock, selling less amid earlier uptrends 【6:13†full-posts-2025.json】.
- Regulatory changes: The U.S. imposed higher tariffs on Indian instant coffee, pushing exporters to diversify markets 【6:0†full-posts-2025.json】.
📊 Fundamentals
- India production (2024/25): 6 million 60-kg bags (decline due to poor pre-monsoon, mainly Arabica slips to 1.4m, Robusta flat at 4.6m) 【6:5†full-posts-2024.json】.
- India export (2024/25): Forecast at 4.2 million bags (down slightly), value at USD 1.816 bn (up 46%). Avg. unit price: USD 4.67/kg vs. 3.19/kg prior year 【6:13†full-posts-2025.json】.
- Brazil: 2024/25 forecast production up 3.6m bags to 69.9m. Arabica up to 48.2m, Robusta at 21.7m.
- Vietnam: Stable at ~29 million bags, but exports Q1–Q2 2025 down 9–10% YoY, while value up >50% on surging prices.
- Indonesia: Expected recovery in 2024/25 (+2.8m to 10.9m bags), aiding global supply 【6:9†full-posts-2024.json】.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India: Pre-monsoon and monsoon deficits persist. Kodagu (-51%), Chikkmagaluru (-40%), Wayanad (-58%). Ongoing dry conditions put 2025 arabica yields at risk and may continue to depress output in major producing districts 【6:5†full-posts-2024.json】.
- Brazil: Favorable rains boost yields, but localized excess rain could still impact harvest quality 【6:10†full-posts-2024.json】.
- Vietnam: Adequate rainfall supports crop recovery after last season’s dryness.
- Colombia: Slight yield improvements forecast with moderate weather, but overall volumes remain below peak.
- Indonesia/Uganda: Robust fly crop/harvest ongoing, adding to exportable supply.
🌏 Global Stocks & Trade Flows
- India: 2024/25 exports at record values despite flat-to-lower output. Europe remains top buyer, led by Italy, Germany, and Belgium. U.S./EU policy moves are causing active redirection of trade flows 【6:13†full-posts-2025.json】.
- Vietnam: Export value per ton hits all-time high, though volumes soft. Germany, Italy, Spain most active buyers—U.S. demand steady despite tariff hikes 【6:17†full-posts-2025.json】.
- Brazil: Exportable surplus up this year but April shipments down ~32% YoY due to logistics/weather; recovers likely post-harvest.
📆 Trading Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
- Producers: Consider gradual sales; high prices may not persist if Brazil/Vietnam harvests overperform. Hold quality lots for premium markets (EU, specialty buyers).
- Exporters: Ensure EUDR compliance for EU-bound shipments; leverage India’s ‘low risk’ status for rapid market access.
- Buyers: Accumulate in tranches on dips below USD 2.20/lb Arabica or USD 4,000/ton Robusta. Watch for basis improvement.
- Traders: Monitor speculative flows and weather in Brazil/India; volatility likely to increase until Q3 harvest data is confirmed.
- Watch for: Changes in U.S./EU tariffs or regulations, especially EUDR benchmarks post-2026 review. Local currency swings in Brazil, Vietnam can shift FOB pricing suddenly.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Region | Product | Current Price | Forecast (3 days) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE NY | Arabica Jul 2024 | USD 2.23/lb | 2.15–2.28 | Neutral/Bearish (volatility persists) |
| ICE London | Robusta Jul 2024 | USD 4,050/ton | 4,000–4,100 | Neutral |
| Vietnam (Hanoi) | Robusta spot | USD 5,100–5,650/ton | 5,050–5,750 | Very Bullish |
| India (Mumbai export) | Mixed | USD 4.67/kg | Stable/softening | Bullish but watch volumes |
