The global coffee market is experiencing a period of extraordinary volatility and transformation as we move through 2025. Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta exporter and a crucial player in the global coffee supply chain, has reported a paradoxical situation: export volumes are down by 9.45% in the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, but export values have surged by an impressive 51.8%. This divergence is driven by a remarkable rise in average export prices—now at $5,646 per ton, up more than 66% year-on-year. The price surge reflects tight supply, robust demand from key markets like Germany, Italy, Spain, and the US, and a confluence of external factors including weather disruptions, speculative trading, and new trade policies. Notably, Germany has increased its coffee imports from Vietnam by nearly 17% in volume and almost doubled its value imports, while the US, despite a 10% import tax imposed since April 2025, continues to pay significantly more for Vietnamese coffee. Meanwhile, Mexico’s coffee imports from Vietnam have skyrocketed, highlighting shifting trade patterns. With global inventories tightening and weather risks looming over major producing regions, both traders and industry stakeholders must remain alert to rapidly changing market dynamics. In this report, we break down the latest price trends, supply and demand drivers, fundamental data, weather outlooks, and provide actionable trading recommendations for the days ahead.
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📈 Prices: Latest Exchange Data
| Exchange |
Contract |
Closing Price |
Weekly Change |
Market Sentiment |
| ICE NY (Arabica) |
July 2025 |
USD 2.24/lb |
+3.2% |
Bullish |
| ICE Europe (Robusta) |
July 2025 |
USD 4,370/ton |
+5.6% |
Strongly Bullish |
| Hanoi (Physical, Robusta) |
Spot |
USD 5,650/ton |
+4.8% |
Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Vietnam’s exports: 665,800 tons in Jan-Apr 2025 (-9.45% YoY), value $3.75bn (+51.8%).
- Average export price: $5,646/ton (+66.61% YoY).
- Germany: 112,800 tons (+17% YoY), value $628.12m (+97.62%).
- Italy: 57,700 tons (-21.7% YoY), value $307.6m (+33.8%).
- Spain: 50,100 tons (-9.4% YoY), value $292.54m (+51.3%).
- US: 42,568 tons (-6.7% YoY), value $236.8m (+56.8%).
- Mexico: 17,413 tons (+2,971% YoY), value $93m (+5,412%).
- US Import Tax: 10% on Vietnamese coffee from April 2025.
- Global inventories: Multi-year lows in certified stocks, especially robusta.
- Speculative positioning: Funds net long in both ICE Arabica and Robusta contracts.
📊 Fundamentals: Production & Stocks
| Country |
2024/25 Output (000 tons) |
2024/25 Exports (000 tons) |
2024/25 Ending Stocks (000 tons) |
| Brazil |
3,780 |
2,950 |
1,050 |
| Vietnam |
1,650 |
1,350 |
200 |
| Colombia |
820 |
700 |
90 |
| Indonesia |
670 |
450 |
60 |
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Vietnam: Central Highlands experiencing below-average rainfall, raising concerns for 2025/26 crop flowering and bean development. Drought risk remains elevated into June.
- Brazil: Favorable weather for harvest in Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo, but some localized dryness could impact late-maturing cherries.
- Indonesia: Wet season ending; dry conditions could affect robusta yields in Sumatra.
- Colombia: Normal rainfall, but El Niño risk could bring drier conditions later in the year.
📌 Market Drivers & Analysis
- Vietnam’s lower export volumes are offset by surging prices due to tight supply and robust global demand.
- New US import tax may temporarily curb shipments, but high prices and demand are sustaining value growth.
- Speculative funds remain strongly net long, supporting the bullish trend.
- Weather risks in Vietnam and Indonesia could tighten supply further into late 2025.
- Rising demand from Mexico and Europe is reshaping trade flows.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Producers: Consider forward selling portions of the 2025/26 crop at current elevated prices, but retain some exposure in case of further weather-driven rallies.
- Importers: Lock in contracts for Q3/Q4 2025 to mitigate price risk as supply remains tight.
- Traders: Momentum remains bullish; watch for corrections if rains improve in Vietnam or speculative longs unwind.
- Roasters: Monitor robusta/arabica spreads and consider blend adjustments as robusta prices remain near record highs.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange |
Current Price |
Forecast (Day 1) |
Forecast (Day 2) |
Forecast (Day 3) |
| ICE NY (Arabica) |
USD 2.24/lb |
USD 2.28/lb |
USD 2.31/lb |
USD 2.29/lb |
| ICE Europe (Robusta) |
USD 4,370/ton |
USD 4,420/ton |
USD 4,480/ton |
USD 4,450/ton |
| Hanoi (Physical, Robusta) |
USD 5,650/ton |
USD 5,700/ton |
USD 5,760/ton |
USD 5,730/ton |
📊 View the latest coffee price trend chart
