The global coffee market is experiencing a dramatic chapter in 2025, with record-breaking prices and remarkable volatility upending traditional trade flows and stakeholder strategies. Vietnam—the world’s leading Robusta exporter—has delivered an unprecedented decade-high export performance, posting USD 6.42 billion in shipments in just the first eight months of 2025. This explosive 59.1% surge in export value far outpaces a modest 8.7% rise in export volume, with average prices jumping to USD 5,580 per ton—a leap of 46.5% year-on-year.
This extraordinary rally owes much to severe supply constraints: major producers Brazil and Indonesia have struggled due to the lingering impact of El Niño, slashing global inventories. Meanwhile, surging demand in Europe and North America, plus structural shifts such as skyrocketing Vietnamese coffee exports to Mexico (+9,100% year-on-year), are redrawing the world coffee map. Germany, Italy, and Spain alone now account for nearly a third of Vietnam’s total export turnover.Domestically, Vietnam’s coffee prices in the Central Highlands corrected slightly at the start of September after months of gains, though analysts expect current firmness to persist through the harvest. Globally, roasters and brands are preparing for costlier beans as supply risks, speculative trade, and a massive tightening in physical stocks set the scene for more volatility—and potential further rallies into the end of the year.
📈 Prices
| Exchange | Product/Contract | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE NY | Arabica (July 2025) | USD 2.24/lb | +3.2% | Bullish |
| ICE Europe | Robusta (July 2025) | USD 4,370/ton | +5.6% | Strongly Bullish |
| Vietnam (Central Highlands) | Robusta (Spot) | 114,000–115,500 VND/kg (USD 4.67–4.73/kg) | -0.8% | Stable |
| Hanoi (Physical, Robusta) | Spot | USD 5,650/ton | +4.8% | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Vietnam: Record January–August 2025 exports of USD 6.42 billion (+59.1% y/y); 1.2 million tons exported (+8.7% y/y).
- Brazil: Green coffee exports fell nearly 32% y/y (April 2025), worsening global tightness.
- Key buyers: Germany, Italy, Spain (30% of Vietnam’s export turnover); Mexico surging; China’s growth slower at +11.7% y/y.
- Global: Coffee stocks at multiyear lows; high purchase competition among roasters and new buyers (notably Mexico).
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Weather events: El Niño reduced harvests in Brazil and Indonesia, boosting prices and demand for Vietnamese Robusta.
- Speculation: Bullish speculative positions at ICE exchanges; farmers holding back stocks awaiting further gains.
- USDA reports: Forecasts for 2025/26 show India, Indonesia, and Brazil all struggling to rebuild inventories.
- Policy shifts: US, India, and EU importers watch trade/tariff changes closely as new supply chains form.
⛅ Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions
- Vietnam: Rainfall has improved, supporting new crop development after earlier dryness. No major weather disruptions forecast in September.
- Brazil: Recovery continues after last year’s El Niño, but some dryness persists in Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo. Flowering is underway, but yields are uncertain.
- Indonesia: Dryness easing, but 2025 harvest size expected to remain below average.
Outlook: No immediate weather threats, but any new dryness in Brazil or Vietnam would further threaten global stocks and push prices higher.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2025 Export Volume (Jan–Aug, tons) | y/y Change | 2025 Export Value (USD bn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 1,200,000 | +8.7% | 6.42 |
| Brazil | Down 32% (Apr) | -32% | n/a |
| Indonesia | n/a | Down y/y | n/a |
| India | n/a | Minor | Following global trend |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Producers: Lock in sales progressively on rallies; consider holding part of crop for potential new highs towards the year end.
- Buyers: Cover needs promptly—tight stocks and firm demand may drive another price spike, especially with renewed weather risks in Brazil from October onwards.
- Traders: Monitor speculative positioning, weather models for Brazil and Vietnam, and new export trends (growth markets such as Mexico and the US).
- All: Volatility presents both risk and opportunity—flexible, dynamic hedging strategies essential.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange | Product | Current Price | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE Europe | Robusta | USD 4,370/ton | USD 4,350-4,500/ton | Bullish |
| ICE NY | Arabica | USD 2.24/lb | USD 2.20-2.30/lb | Stable/Bullish |
| Vietnam (Spot) | Robusta | USD 4.67–4.73/kg | USD 4.70–4.80/kg | Stable |
