The global coffee market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as European buyers accelerate their insistence on EUDR (European Union Deforestation Regulation) compliance for all shipments from July 1, well ahead of the official enforcement date of December 30, 2025. This early push for compliance is creating significant operational and logistical challenges, especially for Indian exporters—one of the primary suppliers to the EU. The regulation, designed to curb imports from deforested areas, requires stringent traceability, risk assessment, and mitigation protocols. While some large arabica growers and multinational exporters are adapting swiftly, the majority of robusta growers—often smallholders—are struggling to keep pace due to fragmented resources and incomplete digital compliance infrastructure. The Coffee Board of India’s compliance app remains in development, adding to the uncertainty. Meanwhile, the EU remains India’s largest coffee export market, with shipments exceeding $1.84 billion in the 2024-25 fiscal year. As compliance requirements grow more complex, exporters face increased costs and potential disruption to trade flows. Weather patterns in key producing regions and evolving buyer requirements will further influence price trends and supply stability in the coming months.
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📈 Prices
| Exchange |
Contract |
Closing Price |
Weekly Change |
Market Sentiment |
| ICE NY (Arabica) |
July 2024 |
USD 2.23/lb |
-2.5% |
Bearish |
| ICE London (Robusta) |
July 2024 |
USD 4,050/ton |
-1.1% |
Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- EU Deforestation Regulation: Early adoption by buyers is disrupting Indian exports, especially robusta, due to compliance gaps.
- Traceability & Compliance Costs: Smaller exporters face higher costs and technical hurdles; multinationals are better prepared.
- Buyer Requirements: Increasingly granular data requests (geo-location, digital traceability) are raising operational complexity.
- Indian Export Profile: EU accounts for the majority of Indian coffee exports; any disruption could impact global supply chains.
- Speculative Positioning: Recent CFTC data shows a net reduction in long positions in both arabica and robusta, reflecting market caution.
📊 Fundamentals
| Country |
2023/24 Production (mn bags) |
2023/24 Exports (mn bags) |
2023/24 Ending Stocks (mn bags) |
| Brazil |
66.3 |
41.0 |
3.2 |
| Vietnam |
28.0 |
25.7 |
1.1 |
| India |
6.2 |
5.7 |
0.6 |
| EU Imports |
– |
46.0 |
12.8 |
- Brazil: Good harvest, but logistics and weather risks persist.
- Vietnam: Lower robusta output due to drought, supporting robusta prices.
- India: Facing compliance and logistical headwinds.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Brazil: Mild temperatures and regular rainfall in key growing regions (Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo) support flowering and cherry development. No major frost threats in the short term.
- Vietnam: Some recovery in rainfall, but soil moisture deficits linger after prolonged drought. Robusta crop stress remains a risk.
- India: Monsoon onset is timely, but patchy distribution in Karnataka and Kerala could affect late cherry development and harvest quality.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country |
Arabica Share (%) |
Robusta Share (%) |
| Brazil |
70 |
30 |
| Vietnam |
5 |
95 |
| India |
35 |
65 |
| Indonesia |
15 |
85 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor EUDR compliance developments closely—expect increased volatility for Indian robusta exports.
- Arabica/robusta price spread may widen as robusta supply tightens due to regulatory and weather risks.
- Short-term bearish sentiment persists, but physical tightness in robusta could trigger price rebounds on supply disruptions.
- EU importers should diversify sourcing and secure compliant supply chains early.
- Exporters: Invest in traceability solutions and digital compliance tools to maintain EU market access.
- Watch for further CFTC speculative position shifts as a potential signal for price reversals.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange |
Price Range |
Trend |
| ICE NY (Arabica) |
USD 2.18–2.26/lb |
Sideways/Volatile |
| ICE London (Robusta) |
USD 4,000–4,100/ton |
Slight Downside |
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