The global coffee market is showing unprecedented dynamism in 2025, underpinned by record-breaking prices and surging export values, particularly from Vietnam. In just the first five months of this year, Vietnam’s coffee exports soared to $4.78 billion, marking a remarkable 65.3% increase year-on-year despite only a minor 0.9% uptick in production. This extraordinary performance—announced by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment—stems largely from the highest-ever average export price of $5,726 per ton. The overarching narrative is one of a tightening global supply chain, with adverse weather conditions decimating yields in major origins like Brazil and Vietnam just as demand intensifies across consuming powerhouses such as Europe, the US, and Asia. Arabica and processed coffees stand out in driving Vietnam’s earnings, a testament to growing deep processing capacity and the leveraging of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) benefits. Notably, Mexico has dramatically ramped up its imports from Vietnam, while Germany, Italy, the USA, and Japan remain core customers. Coupled with a robust domestic agricultural export sector and prudent input cost control, Vietnam’s coffee industry is strengthening its presence on the world stage and pointing to a new era of added value through innovation and product sophistication.
What does this mean for prices, supply security, and trader strategy? Let’s drill into the numbers, weather outlook, and near-term forecast below.
📈 Prices: Latest Market Snapshot
| Exchange | Type | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE New York | Arabica (Jul ’25) | USD 2.35/lb | +5.8% | Bullish |
| ICE London | Robusta (Jul ’25) | USD 4,430/ton | +6.1% | Strong Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Global Drivers
- Vietnam: Exports up 65.3% (Jan-May 2025); marginal output growth but record high average price ($5,726/ton).
- Brazil: Prolonged drought cutting yields, especially for Arabica. Reduced inventories limit export capacity.
- Global Demand: Surge in consumption in Europe, USA, and Asia. Processed and specialty coffees see highest growth.
- New Markets: Mexico’s imports from Vietnam up 55x; momentum building in non-traditional importers.
📊 Fundamentals: Market Forces & External Influences
- USDA & Crop Acreage: Recent USDA reports confirm lower global ending stocks and sustained high demand.
- Inventories: ICE certified stocks at multiyear lows.
- Spec Positioning: Net long positions at highest since 2021, reflecting supply anxiety and bullish sentiment.
- Exchange Rates: Stable VND and relatively weaker BRL add competitive export advantage for Vietnam.
🌦️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions
- Brazil: Weather models signal continued below-normal rainfall for the Cerrado, Minas Gerais, and Espirito Santo. Frost risk remains low but soil moisture deficits persist, likely restraining yield recovery in the next harvest.
- Vietnam: Some respite from dry weather, but rainfall remains patchy. Early Monsoon activity could support flowering, but cumulative deficit not yet covered. Close watch over pest/disease risk as humid conditions return.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (k tons) | 2024/25 Stocks (k tons) | YoY % Change (Production) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 3,570 | 1,150 | -3.7% |
| Vietnam | 834 | 360 | +0.9% |
| Colombia | 800 | 145 | +2.0% |
| Indonesia | 650 | 110 | -5.4% |
🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Exporters: Leverage the strong price environment. Consider forward selling portions of crop at current historically high prices.
- For Roasters/Beverage Companies: Secure coverage for Q3-Q1 2026; expect continued price volatility and supply-side risks.
- For Speculators: Momentum remains solidly bullish, but watch for any policy intervention or demand destruction signals.
- For Importers: Diversify origins where possible and monitor developments in shipping and logistics given global trade disruptions.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Date | ICE NY Arabica (USD/lb) | ICE London Robusta (USD/ton) |
|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.38 | 4,480 |
| Day 2 | 2.40 | 4,510 |
| Day 3 | 2.43 | 4,560 |
Summary: The outlook for coffee remains bullish amid tight supply, adverse weather, and robust demand growth. Price risk is to the upside as market fundamentals show little sign of near term improvement in supply. Cautious optimism is warranted for exporters, while buyers should continue to cover forward needs aggressively.
