The global coffee market has entered a phase of cautious recalibration following a period of historically high prices. April 2025 witnessed a modest retreat in both arabica and robusta prices, as traders and producers alike weighed a mix of supply-side optimism and shifting macroeconomic signals. The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) reported a 3.5% month-on-month dip in its Composite Indicator Price, reflecting a market searching for clear direction. Certified robusta stocks in London declined, while arabica inventories grew, hinting at divergent supply dynamics. In India, farmgate prices mirrored the global softening, even as robust pre-monsoon rains boosted prospects for the 2025-26 crop. The underlying tone, however, remains firm: prices, though off recent peaks, are still elevated by historical standards. Market participants are now closely watching Brazil, where a favorable weather outlook could translate into a better-than-expected harvest, and the strengthening US dollar, which tends to pressure commodity prices lower. As the market digests these cross-currents, positioning for the next move will depend on weather developments, macroeconomic trends, and the pace of replenishment in global inventories.
📈 Prices
| Exchange/Product |
Latest Price |
Weekly Change |
Market Sentiment |
| ICO Composite |
335.76 US¢/lb |
-3.5% |
Neutral/Bearish |
| Colombian Milds |
394.14 US¢/lb |
-2.7% |
Softening |
| Other Milds |
392.84 US¢/lb |
-2.8% |
Softening |
| Brazilian Naturals |
378.27 US¢/lb |
-3.6% |
Bearish |
| Robusta (London) |
246.39 US¢/lb
($5,000/t) |
-4.4% |
Bearish |
| India Arabica Parchment |
₹26,200–27,200/50kg |
-1.1% |
Softening |
| India Robusta Parchment |
₹20,700–22,000/50kg |
-6.5% |
Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Certified Stocks: London robusta stocks fell by 3.1% (0.71m bags); NY arabica stocks rose 6.4% (0.85m bags).
- India: Prices eased on improved crop outlook; pre-monsoon rains in Karnataka and Kerala boost yield prospects for 2025-26.
- Brazil: Crop outlook upgraded; July harvest expected to be robust on favorable weather (Conab, exporters’ associations).
- Global Demand: Remains strong but tempered by macroeconomic uncertainty and currency volatility.
📊 Fundamentals
- ICO Composite Differential: Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential widened to 1.30 US¢/lb.
- Arbitrage: London–NY arbitrage narrowed to 134.67 US¢/lb (-0.3%).
- Speculative Positioning: Recent corrections suggest profit-taking and reduced net long positions, especially in robusta.
- Currency Impact: Stronger US dollar weighing on dollar-denominated coffee prices globally.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Brazil: Favorable weather through June supports strong harvest expectations; no major frost threats reported.
- India: Good pre-monsoon showers in Karnataka and Kerala bode well for flowering and fruit set.
- Vietnam: Mixed rainfall; some concerns over irrigation water, but no acute stress yet.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country |
2024/25 Output (m bags) |
2024/25 Ending Stocks (m bags) |
| Brazil |
67.9 |
5.8 |
| Vietnam |
29.5 |
2.1 |
| Colombia |
11.6 |
0.7 |
| Indonesia |
9.9 |
0.6 |
| India |
6.2 |
0.5 |
| Rest of World |
38.0 |
3.2 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor Brazilian harvest progress and weather; any disruption could reverse price softness.
- Watch dollar strength: further appreciation may pressure prices lower.
- Speculators should consider tight stop-losses; volatility likely as market finds direction.
- Producers: Lock in prices for part of the crop, especially if local currencies weaken further.
- Buyers: Consider scaling into positions as prices ease, but remain alert to supply-side risks.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Exchange |
Product |
Forecast Range |
| ICE NY |
Arabica |
370–380 US¢/lb |
| ICE London |
Robusta |
$4,950–5,050/t |
| Indian Farmgate |
Arabica Parchment |
₹26,000–27,000/50kg |
| Indian Farmgate |
Robusta Parchment |
₹20,500–21,700/50kg |
