The coriander market is turning a critical corner as several converging factors are pushing prices higher and indicating a possible short-term bull run. Currently, coriander markets across India are showing clear signs of firming up. Traders and analysts attribute the strength to a sharp decline in arrivals in major producing states such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat. A prevailing supply squeeze—largely due to weak and erratic monsoon conditions—has delayed the harvest and reduced the quantity reaching local mandis (markets). Meanwhile, farmers are holding back substantial stock in anticipation of improved prices, reducing spot market availability and adding to the bullish undertone.
Market activity is also being driven by a noticeable uptick in export inquiries as global demand for coriander seeds remains steady. Domestically, local traders and stockists are ramping up purchases in preparation for the festive season, further underpinning robust demand. The combined impact of limited supply, strong local and export demand, and strategic farmer holding is supporting a potential price surge from current levels of $50.60–$55.42 per quintal, with projections eyeing $56.63–$61.45 per quintal if current trends persist. Market participants should keep a close watch on weather developments, arrival volumes, and demand from masala manufacturers, as these factors will be decisive in shaping price trajectories in the coming weeks.
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FOB 0.88 €/kg
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📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Exchange/Location | Product | Type/Grade | Origin | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | Coriander seeds | Whole, Organic | India | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0% | Neutral/Firm |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Coriander seeds | Single Parrot | India | 1.12 | 1.12 | 0% | Neutral |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Coriander seeds | Double Parrot | India | 1.24 | 1.23 | +0.8% | Firming |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Coriander seeds | Powder, Organic | India | 2.69 | 2.69 | 0% | Neutral |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Coriander seeds | Eagle, Split (98%) | India | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0% | Neutral |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Coriander seeds | 99.9% Purity | India | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0% | Neutral |
| Kairo (FOB) | Coriander seeds | 99.9% Purity | Egypt | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0% | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Tight Supply: Arrivals at major mandis have slowed considerably due to harvest delays in Rajasthan, MP, and Gujarat. Farmers are holding inventory, awaiting improved prices.
- Improved Demand: Active buying from local traders, stockists, and masala manufacturers, especially for festive season needs, is increasing buying interest.
- Export Inquiries: Notable uptick in export demand, which could further support prices if sustained—especially amid steady international interest in Indian coriander seeds.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Weather: Weak, erratic monsoon rainfall has delayed harvesting and could further impact yields if dry spells persist.
- Stocks: Spot market inventories are thin, as both farmers and intermediaries hold on to stocks in anticipation of higher prices.
- Speculative Position: Market shows a ‘firm to bullish’ undertone, with traders positioning for further upside if fundamentals remain supportive.
🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Regions
- Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat: Monsoon remains below average, with only light to moderate rainfall predicted over the next 7 days. If rains pick up, some improvement in arrivals is possible, but the likelihood is for continued tightness in the near term.
- Impact: Persistent dry conditions could reduce yields and prolong the supply crunch, supporting firmer prices for the next two weeks.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (est. tonnes) | 2023/24 Stock Change | Export Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~800,000 | Down (lower arrivals, farmer holding) | Largest exporter |
| Egypt | ~48,000 | Stable | Secondary exporter to Europe/MENA |
| Europe (Bulgaria, Romania) | ~23,000 | Stable/Up | Minor export, mainly intra-EU |
| Importing: EU, Middle East, Southeast Asia | – | – | Rising inquiries |
📌 Key Market Drivers
- Supply crunch from delayed arrivals and farmer hoarding
- Improved export inquiries, especially from Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian buyers
- Steady domestic demand for spice and masala processing
- Weather risks: Weak monsoon and delayed harvest threaten near-term supply restoration
- Speculative demand in anticipation of not just higher local, but also international prices
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Secure forward contracts if possible; consider staggered purchases as prices may continue rising.
- Sellers/Farmers: Hold unsold inventory if able; prices likely to see further upside provided monsoon remains erratic.
- Exporters: Leverage the firm market for higher-value contracts, especially with renewed export inquiries.
- Monitor: Daily mandi arrivals, rainfall patterns in Rajasthan/MP/Gujarat, and export demand.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price ($/quintal) | Forecast Range ($/quintal) |
|---|---|---|
| NCDEX (Spot) | 50.60–55.42 | 51.50–57.00 |
| Major Mandis (IN) | 50.60–54.60 | 51.00–56.00 |
| Export FOB India (EUR/kg) | 0.88–2.69 | 0.90–2.80 |
Note: Forecast based on current arrivals, weather projections, and market sentiment.
