The past week has seen coriander prices in major trading centers under notable pressure due to a significant downturn in arrivals. With volumes falling sharply—by nearly 6,000–7,000 bags compared to previous sessions—prices slipped by $3.10–$3.70 across most key markets. However, despite this immediate pressure from constrained supply, there are signals that underlying market sentiment remains resilient. Benchmark NCDEX coriander futures, for example, closed the week slightly up at $0.33 per kg, reflecting firm undercurrents beneath an otherwise quieter spot market.
In Gujarat, one of India’s most crucial coriander producing states, no noteworthy arrivals were reported, amplifying the supply-side squeeze. Meanwhile, premium coriander lots were still attracting strong bids, with the best varieties selling for as much as $3.90 per kg in Gondal and $3.60 per kg in Rajkot, while mainstream wholesale prices stayed in the $2.20–$2.30 per kg range. With demand seen rising ahead of seasonal holiday and festival consumption, and no fresh supply build-up anticipated, market watchers expect coriander prices to remain steady to upward trending in the near term. The key question: will the market’s tight supply continue to lend support as buyers ramp up activity in coming weeks?
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📈 Prices
| Market/Exchange | Product/Grade | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCDEX (India) | Benchmark Futures | $0.33/kg | Firm | Bullish undertone |
| Gondal (IN) | Premium Varieties | $3.90/kg | – $3.70 | Strong demand |
| Rajkot (IN) | Premium Varieties | $3.60/kg | – $3.10 | Firm |
| Wholesale Markets (India) | Standard Grades | $2.20–$2.30/kg | – $3.10–$3.70 | Weak but stabilizing |
| New Delhi (IN, Organic, FOB) | Coriander seeds (whole) | €2.36/kg | Unchg | Steady |
| New Delhi (IN, FOB) | Coriander seeds (single parrot) | €1.10/kg | Unchg | Steady |
| Kairo (EG, FOB) | Coriander seeds (99.9% purity) | €1.02/kg | Unchg | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals Slump: Major Indian markets saw arrivals down 6,000–7,000 bags week-on-week.
- Gujarat Arrivals: Virtual standstill, further tightening local supply.
- Export Demand: Steady interest from Gulf, EU, and Southeast Asia supports export prospects.
- Domestic Consumption: Expected to rise with the onset of festival season in India.
- Premium Price Spread: Premium coriander continues to fetch notable markups over standard grades due to quality-driven demand in select markets.
📊 Fundamentals
- Production: India remains the world’s leading coriander producer; recent sowing was slightly below average due to erratic pre-monsoon rainfall.
- Stocks: India’s internal stocks are reported below normal after a drawdown last quarter; Egypt and Eastern Europe report average ending inventories.
- Speculator Positioning: Bullish bias prevails on NCDEX in light trading, pointing toward expectations of further upside.
- USDA/Other Reports: No major revisions; focus shifts to weekly wholesale arrivals and export shipments for fresh cues.
☀️ Weather Outlook
- India (Rajasthan, Gujarat): Current weather is stable, but above-normal daytime temperatures persist in several growing regions, increasing risk of moisture deficits in rainfed fields.
- Egypt: Cooler-than-average nights, but no immediate risk to crop health noted.
Any further rise in temperatures with dry winds could hamper late-planted coriander crops, potentially aggravating supply tightness if unseasonal conditions persist.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Production (2024E, 000 MT) | Stocks (000 MT) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 450-480 | 55 | Stocks below 5-year average |
| Egypt | 60-70 | 15 | Ample domestic |
| Russia/Eastern Europe | 25-30 | 8 | Average |
| Global | 600–640 | ~90 | Stocks moderately tight |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term: Bullish bias – Remain long or accumulate on dips if arrivals continue at low levels and demand rises pre-festival.
- Exporters: Maintain offers, as international demand is expected to stay robust; consider hedging against currency volatility.
- Importers: Consider covering near-term needs now, as further price firming is likely if supply tightness persists through the next market cycle.
- Buyers: Monitor weather in India closely for cues on crop size and premium availability.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market/Exchange | Today | Day 2 | Day 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCDEX (Futures, India) | $0.33 | $0.34 | $0.35 | Steady to firm |
| Gondal (Premium) | $3.90 | $3.90 | $3.95 | Slightly firm |
| Rajkot (Premium) | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.70 | Steady to firm |
| New Delhi (Organic, FOB) | €2.36 | €2.36 | €2.38 | Stable, mild upside |
| Kairo (FOB) | €1.02 | €1.02 | €1.03 | Stable, mild upside |
