➡ Corn Ends Week Mixed – Nearby Contracts Supported, New Crop Pressured by Acreage Outlook
While early-dated CBOT corn contracts closed slightly higher, new crop positions remained under pressure due to expanding acreage expectations. Trade tensions and demand stability continue to shape sentiment.
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U.S. corn finished the week with modest gains in short-term contracts, supported by export stability and global supply concerns. Deferred contracts eased expectations of increased U.S. production. Euronext corn also ticked up slightly, though weekly losses remained.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
| Delivery Month | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Daily Change | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 460.25 | +2.75 | +7.00 ct (+0.2%) |
| Jul 2025 | 467.25 | +1.25 | – |
| Dec 2025 | 446.75 | −0.75 | – |
➡ Short-term contracts remain supported by firm demand and resilient trade flows.
🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
| Delivery Month | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Daily Change | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | 210.25 | +0.75 | −1.00 EUR (−0.5%) |
| Aug 2025 | 215.25 | 0.00 | – |
| Nov 2025 | 211.50 | 0.00 | – |
➡ Modest recovery in the near-term contract after a weak weekly performance.
🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 🌍 Trade Stability for Corn vs. Soy:
U.S. corn trade with China remains limited, minimizing exposure to tariff risks.- Mexico remains duty-free → stable demand continues
- China covers needs via South America and Ukraine
- 📉 New Crop Pressure:
The expected expansion of U.S. corn acreage is weighing on deferred positions.- Higher prices could further shift planting away from soybeans
- The risk of oversupply is emerging in the 2025 balance sheet
- 📊 CFTC Fund Positioning (April 1):
- Managed money reduced net-long by 17,850 contracts
- New total: 56,757 contracts
- Sentiment remains cautious
- 🚢 USDA Export Sales:
- Commitments: 54.235 million tons
- +24% YoY, covering 87% of the USDA target
- Slightly below 5-year average of 88%
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
| Region | Outlook | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. Corn Belt | Wetter than normal | Potential planting delays |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | Dry, stable | Favorable for import flow |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | Drier in the south | Stress on first-crop yields |
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks
| Region | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | YoY Change | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 389.7 | +6.2 Mt | 55.2 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 288.8 | ±0.0 | 204.2 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | −0.6 Mt | 11.4 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 65.0 (est.) | +6.0 Mt | 16.1 |
| 🌍 Global Total | ~1,222.4 | +5.8 Mt | 314.6 |
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 354.2 | 383.5 | 389.7 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 277.0 | 288.8 | 288.8 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | 125.5 | 127.5 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 52.3 | 61.2 | 65.0 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 52.0 | 56.0 | 49.0 |
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 🔄 Old crop well supported by stable exports and global tightness
- ⚠️ New crop exposed to oversupply risks due to acreage shift
- 📉 Speculators reducing long exposure as planting season begins
🧭 Strategy:
Maintain long exposure in early contracts with strong export demand.
Hedge or stay cautious on deferred contracts until clearer planting progress emerges.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 8–10)
| Market | Outlook | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT | 🔁 Sideways | Competing signals from planting & demand |
| Euronext | 🔼 Slightly firmer | Stabilization expected after weekly dip |
| Dalian | 🔁 Stable | No fresh demand impulses domestically |