➡ Corn Falls to 3-Month Low Ahead of USDA Planting Report
With U.S. planting data just days away, corn futures slumped to the lowest level in three months. Traders are preparing for potentially bearish acreage estimates.
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Thursday’s session extended the downward trend in U.S. corn futures. Meanwhile, European prices also declined despite previous resilience, as speculative selling intensified across both sides of the Atlantic.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 450.00 | −1.25 |
| Jul 25 | 458.00 | −1.25 |
| Dec 25 | 443.75 | −1.25 |
➡ The May contract touched its lowest level since late December.
🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 212.00 | −1.75 |
| Aug 25 | 217.25 | −1.50 |
| Nov 25 | 212.50 | −1.50 |
➡ Prices softened across the curve as speculators lightened positions.
🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 📊 USDA Reports (due April 1):
- U.S. corn acreage is expected to rise significantly due to attractive price ratios compared to soybeans.
- The market anticipates bearish surprises that could further pressure prices.
- 🇪🇺 EU Outlook (European Commission):
- 2025 corn production forecast: ↑ +10% → 65.0 million tons
- Barley output is also projected higher: ↑ +5% → 51.7 million tons
- EU corn imports expected to decline from 19.5 to 18.3 million tons
- 🚢 USDA Weekly Export Sales (Mar 20 report):
- Net corn bookings: 1.039 million tons
- −31% vs. the previous week, but in line with the 4-week average
- Expectations ranged from 0.6 to 1.6 million tons
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
| Region | Trend | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. Corn Belt | Cool & unsettled | May delay early fieldwork |
| 🇪🇺 Europe | Dry & mild | Good sowing conditions |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | Uneven rainfall | Risk to Safrinha yields rising |
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks
| Region | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | YoY Change | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 389.7 | +6.2 Mt | 55.2 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 288.8 | ±0.0 | 204.2 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 121.8 | +0.6 Mt | 11.4 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 65.0 (est.) | +6.0 Mt | 16.1 (est.) |
| 🌍 Global Total | 1,222.4 | +5.8 Mt | 314.6 |
➡ The EU’s revised projections support a more balanced global supply outlook.
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 354.2 | 383.5 | 389.7 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 277.0 | 288.8 | 288.8 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | 125.5 | 121.8 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 52.3 | 61.2 | 65.0 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 52.0 | 56.0 | 49.0 |
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 🛑 Caution remains key ahead of the USDA reports on acreage and stocks
- 🔻 Sentiment is bearish, with prices at multi-month lows
- 📦 Exports remain steady, but slowing weekly volumes add to the pressure
🧭 Strategy: Wait for clarity from Monday’s reports before taking new positions. Short-term downside risk remains, especially if planting intentions exceed expectations.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Mar 29–31)
| Market | Outlook | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT | 🔻 Bearish | Traders expect further selling into USDA data |
| Euronext | 🔻 Slightly lower | EU crop optimism limits support |
| Dalian (China) | 🔁 Stable | Domestic demand remains balanced |