Corn Futures Decline After WASDE Leaves U.S. Stocks Unchanged
Corn futures fell on Tuesday after the USDA’s WASDE report left U.S. ending stocks unchanged, disappointing traders who had expected a cut. Despite lower production forecasts for Argentina and Brazil, global ending stocks remain tight. Meanwhile, Euronext corn found support from rising wheat prices.
Corn Futures Retreat from Multi-Month Highs
Corn futures on the CBoT closed lower on Tuesday, extending losses from their late January peaks. The active March contract dropped 7.5 cents to 484 ct/bu (EUR 185/t). Meanwhile, Euronext’s March contract edged up by EUR 0.50 to EUR 217.75/t.
Key Market Drivers
1. WASDE Report Leaves U.S. Corn Balance Unchanged
- The USDA’s February WASDE report disappointed traders by keeping U.S. corn-ending stocks for 2024/25 unchanged from January.
- No revisions to U.S. exports also pressured Chicago prices, as expectations of an increase were not met.
2. South American Production Lower, but Global Supply Still Tight
- Argentina’s corn crop forecast was cut by 1 million tons to 50 million tons.
- Brazil’s production was lowered by 1 million tons to 126 million tons.
- Global beginning stocks were revised down by 1.65 million tons to 315.81 million tons.
- Global corn consumption was also reduced slightly by 1.51 million tons to 1,237.96 million tons, preventing a more significant tightening of supply.
- Global ending stocks for 2024/25 were cut by 3 million tons to 291.3 million tons, reaching a 10-year low.
- China accounted for most of the reduction, with stocks lowered by 3 million tons to 203.18 million tons.
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3. Euronext Corn Finds Support from Rising Wheat Prices
- EU corn imports from July 1 to February 9 totalled 12.4 million tons, up 6% from last year.
- Weekly imports increased by 329,000 tons, but the pace has slowed due to higher global corn prices, making EU feed wheat more competitive.
CBoT Corn – Closing Prices (February 12, 2025, 14:44 CET)
| Contract | Previous | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | EUR/t |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 25 (Active Contract) | 484.00 ct/bu | 483.75 ct/bu | 486.25 ct/bu | 481.50 ct/bu | 482.50 ct/bu | -1.50 ct (-0.31%) | EUR 185/t |
| May 25 | 498.00 ct/bu | 497.75 ct/bu | 499.75 ct/bu | 495.25 ct/bu | 496.25 ct/bu | -1.75 ct (-0.35%) | EUR 190/t |
| July 25 | 501.25 ct/bu | 501.00 ct/bu | 503.00 ct/bu | 499.00 ct/bu | 499.75 ct/bu | -1.50 ct (-0.30%) | EUR 191/t |
| September 25 | 471.00 ct/bu | 471.00 ct/bu | 472.00 ct/bu | 469.00 ct/bu | 469.00 ct/bu | -2.00 ct (-0.42%) | EUR 179/t |
| December 25 | 470.25 ct/bu | 469.50 ct/bu | 471.00 ct/bu | 468.75 ct/bu | 469.50 ct/bu | -0.75 ct (-0.16%) | EUR 178/t |
(EUR conversion based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR)
Euronext Corn – Closing Prices (February 12, 2025, 15:13 CET)
| Contract | Previous | Open | High | Low | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 25 (Active Contract) | EUR 217.75/t | EUR 217.25/t | EUR 217.25/t | EUR 214.75/t | EUR 215.00/t | -EUR 2.75 (-1.26%) |
| June 25 | EUR 224.50/t | EUR 224.25/t | EUR 224.25/t | EUR 222.00/t | EUR 222.50/t | -EUR 2.00 (-0.89%) |
| August 25 | EUR 228.25/t | EUR 227.50/t | EUR 227.75/t | EUR 226.25/t | EUR 226.25/t | -EUR 2.00 (-0.88%) |
| November 25 | EUR 220.25/t | EUR 219.00/t | EUR 219.00/t | EUR 218.25/t | EUR 218.25/t | -EUR 2.00 (-0.91%) |
Conclusion & Market Outlook
With no changes to the U.S. corn balance in the WASDE report, prices saw pressure despite lower production estimates for South America. Global corn stocks remain at a decade low, and traders now shift their focus to weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil, as well as export trends in the coming weeks.
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