Corn Futures Drop to 2025 Lows – Planting Pace and Technical Pressure Dominate Marke

➡ Corn Futures Drop to 2025 Lows – Planting Pace and Technical Pressure Dominate Market

Corn futures continued to fall on Tuesday, with the July contract at its lowest level since January. Despite tighter U.S. stock estimates, ideal planting weather and technical selling drove prices lower. Euronext futures bucked the trend, posting a modest gain.

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U.S. corn futures came under renewed pressure as traders digested the WASDE data and weather forecasts. Although the USDA cut ending stocks for old crop, overall sentiment remained bearish due to planting progress and rising global production. The European market held up better on technical buying.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change
Jul 2025	442.50	−5.50
Sep 2025	427.75	−1.00
Dec 2025	441.00	−1.00

➡ Technical breakthrough key support zones triggered further liquidation.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change
Jun 2025	194.25	+1.75
Aug 2025	195.25	+0.50
Nov 2025	198.50	+0.25

➡ Paris futures rebounded modestly as traders saw value near recent lows.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 🌱 US Planting Progress:
  • As of May 12, 62% of corn was planted, vs. 56% 5-year avg.
  • USDA data beat analyst expectations → bearish short-term
  • Emergence at 28% vs. 21% 5-year avg.
• 🧮 USDA Ending Stock Revisions (WASDE, May):
  • Old crop ending stocks (Sep 2025): 1.415 Bbu
  • Down from April (1.465 Bbu)
  • Below market expectation (1.443 Bbu) – supportive, but ignored short term
• 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Discrepancy:
  • USDA: ↑ to 130 Mt
  • Cordonnier: only ↑ to 127 Mt
  • Uncertainty persists – market discounts USDA optimism
• 📉 Technical Pressure:
  • The July contract broke through the 445 ct support
  • Momentum funds accelerating downside

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Market Impact
🇺🇸 Midwest	Dry, ideal	Accelerates planting → bearish bias
🇧🇷 Brazil	Mild, steady	Crop confidence supports exports
🇦🇷 Argentina	Stable	Harvest concluding

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🌍 Corn Market Snapshot (Post-WASDE)

Indicator	Value	Comment
U.S. Ending Stocks (old crop)	1.415 Bbu	Below expected → supportive
Brazil Crop Estimate (USDA)	130 Mt	Raised +4 Mt
Brazil Crop Estimate (Cordonnier)	127 Mt	Market more cautious
U.S. Planting Progress	62%	Faster than average
Jul CBOT Corn	442.50 ct/bu	New 2025 low

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• 🔻 Short-term outlook remains bearish
• ⚠️ Weather + fund pressure outweighs the tight stocks narrative
• 📊 Brazil outlook contested, watch for supply revisions

Strategy:

• Avoid new longs until technical stability returns
• Monitor Thursday’s export sales for demand confirmation
• Look for support near 440 ct/bu (CBOT Jul) – psychological barrier

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (May 15–17)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	🔽 Bearish bias	Technical momentum and weather dominate
Euronext	🔁 Sideways-to-firm	Relative support from global divergence
Dalian	🔁 Stable	No major domestic impulses expected

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