Corn Futures End Mixed – USDA Planting Data in Focus
Old crop corn prices posted modest gains on Friday, while new crop contracts remained under pressure. Traders are positioning ahead of Monday’s high-impact USDA reports.
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The corn market was volatile but settled mixed on Friday.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Change | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 453.25 | +3.25 | −11.00 ct (−2.4%) |
| Jul 25 | 460.00 | 0.00 | − |
| Dec 25 | 442.50 | −1.25 | − |
➡ May futures hit a 3-month low before recovering by the session’s end.
🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 211.25 | −0.75 | −4.50 EUR (−2.1%) |
| Aug 25 | 216.25 | 0.00 | − |
| Nov 25 | 212.25 | 0.00 | − |
➡ European prices posted a second consecutive weekly loss.
🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 📊 USDA Reports (April 1):
- Acreage Expectations (Reuters survey):
- Avg: 94.4 million acres of corn (vs. 90.6 in 2024)
- Range: 92.5 – 96.6 million acres
- Grain Stocks Estimate (March 1):
- Expected: 8.153 billion bu
- 2024: 8.352 billion bu
- Acreage Expectations (Reuters survey):
- 📉 CFTC Fund Positioning (as of March 25):
- Managed money cut 32,663 contracts
- Net-long now at 74,607 contracts
- Sentiment remains bearish
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
| Region | Trend | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. Corn Belt | Cool & damp | Slows early fieldwork, limited support |
| 🇪🇺 Europe | Dry & mild | Excellent planting conditions |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | Mixed rain pattern | Ongoing stress for Safrinha crop |
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks
| Region | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | YoY Change | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 389.7 | +6.2 Mt | 55.2 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 288.8 | ±0.0 | 204.2 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 121.8 | +0.6 Mt | 11.4 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 65.0 (est.) | +6.0 Mt | 16.1 |
| 🌍 Global Total | 1,222.4 | +5.8 Mt | 314.6 |
➡ Global fundamentals remain comfortable, but attention is shifting toward new crop acreage.
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 354.2 | 383.5 | 389.7 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 277.0 | 288.8 | 288.8 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | 125.5 | 121.8 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 52.3 | 61.2 | 65.0 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 52.0 | 56.0 | 49.0 |
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 📉 Bearish tone dominates, with funds continuing to sell
- 📊 Short-term correction possible, but limited upside until USDA confirms acreage data
- ⚠️ Volatility likely on Monday – traders advised to stay cautious
🧭 Strategy: Hold off on aggressive positions until after USDA release. Watch for a possible buy-the-news recovery if bearish expectations are priced in.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 1–3)
| Market | Outlook | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT | 🔁 Sideways-to-firm | Technical rebound possible post-USDA shock |
| Euronext | 🔻 Slightly weaker | Under pressure from the global supply outlook |
| Dalian | 🔁 Stable | No major directional impulse currently |