📜 Corn Futures Slip Despite Bullish Ethanol Data – Weather and Dollar in Focus 📜

Corn futures moved lower on Wednesday, with weather-driven optimism for planting progress and easing macro concerns weighing prices. Supportive ethanol data wasn’t enough to reverse sentiment, as traders looked ahead to Thursday’s USDA export sales figures.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 % Change
CBOT Jul 2025 Corn	479.25 ct/bu	–4.00 ct	–0.83%
Euronext Jun 2025 Corn	€202.75/t	–€0.75	–0.37%

📌 Prices slipped further as U.S. planting optimism and a firmer dollar weighed on sentiment.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 🌤️ U.S. Weather Boosts Planting Outlook

📊 The Commodity Weather Group forecasted:

• Next 16–30 days to be drier than normal across much of the U.S. Midwest
• Ideal conditions for planting progress
• Minimal disruption expected to spring fieldwork

📌 Improved planting weather is putting pressure on new-crop prices.

🔹 📈 U.S. Dollar Recovers – Weighs on Commodities

📊 The dollar rose as trade tensions eased slightly, and:

• President Trump backed away from threats to dismiss the Fed chair
• Market sentiment stabilised, supporting risk-on flows in equities

📌 A stronger dollar typically limits upside in U.S. grain exports.

🔹 📊 Bullish Ethanol Data Fails to Lift Prices

📊 EIA data for the week ending April 18:

• Ethanol production up by 21,000 bpd to 1.033 million bpd
• Inventories fell by 1.333 million barrels to 25.481 million barrels
• Exports dropped by 62,000 bpd to 75,000 bpd
• Deliveries to refiners up by 19,000 bpd to 921,000 bpd (highest since Oct 2024)

📌 Data was bullish, but macro pressure and planting optimism outweighed ethanol gains.

🔹 📦 USDA Export Sales Expected Today

📊 Weekly sales report for April 25:

• Old-crop (2024/25) corn sales expected: 0.8–1.3 million t
• New-crop sales: 0–100,000 t

📌 Traders will be watching for signals of renewed export demand.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 25–27, 2025)

📅 Contract	🔮 Expected Price Range
CBOT Jul 2025	476 – 482 ct/bu (€169 – €171/t)
Euronext Jun 2025	€201 – €204/t

📌 Unless export sales surprise to the upside, further downside is possible due to planting pressure.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Corn Belt

🇺🇸 U.S. Midwest (Corn Belt)

📍 Current: Favourable planting conditions 📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• 🌡️ Temperatures near or slightly above normal
• 🌤️ Dryness expected to persist – may accelerate seeding

📌 Weather remains the dominant bearish factor for corn in the short term.

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📉 5. EIA Weekly Ethanol Data (Apr 18 Week)

📊 Metric	🔼 Weekly Change	📈 Value
Production	+21,000 bpd	1.033 million bpd
Stocks	–1.333 million bbl	25.481 million bbl
Exports	–62,000 bpd	75,000 bpd
Refinery Use	+19,000 bpd	921,000 bpd (5-month high)

📌 Ethanol production and refinery use show strength, but aren’t enough to reverse corn weakness.

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways: ✅ Planting conditions remain highly favourable across the Corn Belt
✅ A stronger dollar and risk appetite reduce grain market appeal
✅ Ethanol data is supportive but overshadowed by planting progress
✅ All eyes on USDA’s export data for short-term direction

📌 Recommendations: 🔹 Producers: Stay defensive – planting pressure may limit rallies
🔹 Buyers: Use current weakness to secure old-crop coverage
🔹 Traders: Watch for export sales surprise or early signs of planting delays in May

📍 Short-term fundamentals remain bearish, but the market remains sensitive to export and weather shocks.