Corn Market Analysis: Cautious Optimism Despite Global Headwinds

Amid cautious optimism, the global corn market is navigating choppy waters marked by shifting fundamentals and international trade dynamics. European corn futures remain underpinned by persistent dryness in key growing regions, while U.S. prices have stabilised after weeks of fund-driven short covering. Asian demand continues to show resilience, highlighted by substantial new purchases from traditional importers like South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. Meanwhile, China’s Dalian exchange reflects moderate losses but a slowdown in price declines, hinting at finding a price floor amid ample domestic stocks.

On the supply side, the EU’s latest crop forecast revision—a 7% downgrade—signals tightening European availability. USDA export sales for the new marketing year posted strong results, adding upward pressure to U.S. prices, while South America continues exports at competitive rates. Weather, always a pivotal factor, currently favors yield prospects in the U.S. Corn Belt, with beneficial rains recently reported but heatwaves looming. Trade policy continues to influence flows, especially following the U.S.-South Korea tariff agreement and the extension of Mexico’s suspension of tariffs. All these elements combine to create a market that is neither outright bullish nor bearish but loaded with event risk in both directions.

📈 Prices: Latest Corn Futures at Key Exchanges

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Currency	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Euronext	Aug 25	210.00	EUR/t	+0.96%	Neutral/Bid
Euronext	Nov 25	194.50	EUR/t	-0.13%	Soft
CBOT	Sep 25	393.75	US-Cent/bu	-0.06%	Steady
CBOT	Dec 25	413.50	US-Cent/bu	-0.06%	Steady
DCE (Dalian)	Sep 25	2304.00	CNY/t	-0.26%	Mild Bearish
DCE (Dalian)	Nov 25	2234.00	CNY/t	-0.36%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• EU Crop Shrinks: European Commission cuts usable EU maize output forecast from 64.6 Mt to 60.1 Mt (-7%).
• Strong U.S. Export Sales: USDA reports nearly 1.9 Mt of U.S. new crop corn sales, beating expectations and a marketing-year high.
• Asian Buying: Taiwanese MFIG buys 65,000 t U.S. corn; South Korea and Japan are also active buyers.
• Fund Positioning: Funds covering shorts on U.S. futures, supporting CBOT prices near multi-month lows.
• Trade Policy: U.S. and S. Korea agree on 15% tariffs; U.S. extends tariff suspension with Mexico by 90 days.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparisons

Country/Region	2025/26 Prod. (Mt)	2025/26 Ending Stocks (Mt)	Notes
USA	384*	55*	Solid yields expected; new export sales strong.
EU	60.1	N/A	Down from the previous 64.6 Mt estimate.
China	285*	212*	High stocks; Dalian prices softening.
Brazil	121*	8*	Export program active, record crop last season.
Argentina	56*	N/A	Competitive offers; high export pace.

* USDA 2025/26 preliminary; actual to be verified with August WASDE.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• U.S. Corn Belt: Recent rains improve soil moisture; outlook calls for seasonal to above-normal temps, with heat spells possible in the Western Belt. Watch for pollination stress if heat persists.
• EU: Key areas (France, Hungary, Romania) remain dry; limited rain next week, raising concerns for the grain filling stage.
• China: Stable weather forecast in the Northeast Corn Belt; chance for scattered showers to aid late crop development.
• South America: Off-season, but southern Brazil is experiencing normal winter rainfall; safrinha in storage, export pace steady.

🌏 Regional Market Prices (Physical)

Origin	Type	Location	Price	Currency	Weekly Change
Ukraine	Yellow feed (14.5% max moisture)	Odesa (FCA)	0.26	EUR/kg	0.00
France	Yellow	Paris (FOB)	0.24	EUR/kg	-0.01
India	Starch (organic)	New Delhi (FOB)	1.92	EUR/kg	-0.01

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers should lock in part of Q4 needs on further dips, as EU and Black Sea supply outlooks tighten.
• Monitor USDA August WASDE and crop tour data for U.S. yield direction; high market response risk.
• Short sellers should tread carefully as speculative funds continue to cover shorts.
• Exporters in South America remain competitive; keep an eye on Brazilian offers for short-term arbitrage.
• Weather risk persists in both the U.S. and Europe; volatility is expected around forecast updates.
• Physical market remains disconnected from futures in some regions; local premiums may widen if harvest delays materialise.

🚦 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Euronext Nov 25: Range-bound, 192–196 EUR/t; weather and U.S. news key drivers
• CBOT Dec 25: Flat-to-firm, 410–416 US-Cent/bu, watch fund action and fundamental headlines
• Dalian Nov 25: Mild downward bias, 2225–2240 CNY/t, as Chinese demand remains tepid