Corn Market Analysis: Iran’s Major Tender, Global Supply Shifts, and Weather Risks Drive Uncertainty

The global corn market is experiencing heightened volatility as new developments reshape both supply and demand dynamics. This week, Iran’s state-run animal feed importer SLAL reportedly secured up to 240,000 tonnes of animal feed corn through international tenders, doubling the original tender volume. This aggressive procurement underscores Iran’s determination to shore up feed grain supplies despite persistent payment challenges under Western sanctions. Sources indicate a diverse sourcing strategy, with possible origins including Brazil, Europe, Russia, Ukraine, and other Black Sea nations. The payment mechanism, routed through Iraqi and Turkish banks, highlights ongoing logistical and financial hurdles for Iranian importers. The scale of this purchase is likely to tighten available supply in the Black Sea and European markets during the July-August delivery window, with the potential to influence regional price trends. Meanwhile, global corn prices remain subdued amid large inventories and favorable weather in the U.S. Midwest, but the market is watching closely for any sign of crop stress or export disruptions. As we move into the critical summer growing season, traders are focused on weather forecasts, the pace of U.S. exports, and the evolving geopolitical landscape. Iran’s move is a reminder that unexpected demand shocks can quickly change the market narrative, especially when coupled with logistical uncertainties and shifting trade flows.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Location	Product	Type/Grade	Delivery Terms	Closing Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
Buenos Aires	Popcorn	expansion, 40/42	FOB	0.83	0.0	Stable
Paris (FR)	Corn	Yellow	FOB	0.27	0.0	Neutral
New Delhi (IN)	Corn	Starch (Organic)	FOB	2.04	0.0	Stable
Odesa (UA)	Corn	Standard	FOB	0.21	-4.5	Bearish
Odesa (UA)	Corn	Yellow feed grade (moisture 14.5% max, purity 98%)	FCA	0.25	0.0	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Iran’s Purchase: Up to 240,000 tonnes of corn secured for July-August delivery, potentially tightening Black Sea/European supply.
• Origins: Likely sources include Brazil, Europe, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey. Specific supplier breakdown undisclosed.
• Global Demand: Steady feed demand from Asia and MENA, but China’s recent buying has slowed.
• US Exports: Remain robust, but competition from Brazil and Ukraine continues to pressure prices.
• Inventories: Global stocks remain comfortable, but localized tightness possible if weather or logistics disrupt flows.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Latest WASDE maintains a neutral to slightly bearish outlook for corn, citing strong U.S. planting progress and above-average yield prospects.
• Crop Acreage: U.S. corn acreage is in line with expectations; South American harvests are nearly complete with strong yields.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money is modestly net short on CBOT corn, reflecting a lack of bullish catalysts.
• Geopolitical Risks: Black Sea logistics remain a wildcard, especially with heightened tension in the region.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Forecasts call for mostly favorable conditions with periodic showers and moderate temperatures, supporting crop development.
• Europe: Western Europe faces localized dryness, but no widespread drought yet. Eastern Europe and Ukraine have adequate soil moisture.
• Brazil: Safrinha corn harvest underway; weather turning drier but impact limited as crop maturity advances.
• Ukraine/Black Sea: Mild weather continues, though any escalation in conflict could disrupt logistics.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)	Comments
USA	382	54	Strong acreage, favorable weather
Brazil	119	10	Large safrinha crop, robust exports
Ukraine	28	2.8	Logistics stable, but risks remain
EU	62	7.2	Mixed weather, steady demand
China	288	204	Large stocks, slow import pace

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor further details on Iran’s purchase for price impact, especially if additional tenders emerge.
• Watch US Midwest weather—any shift toward hot/dry conditions could spark a price rally.
• Track Black Sea logistics and geopolitical headlines for potential export disruptions.
• End users: Consider locking in forward coverage for Q3-Q4 if basis remains favorable.
• Traders: Upside limited in the short term unless weather turns adverse; spreads may widen if regional tightness develops.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price (USD/kg)	Forecast Range (USD/kg)	Trend
Paris (FR)	0.27	0.26 – 0.28	Stable/Neutral
Odesa (UA)	0.21	0.20 – 0.22	Slightly Bearish
New Delhi (IN)	2.04	2.02 – 2.05	Stable