Corn Market Analysis: Outlook Shifts Amidst Global Revisions and Weather Risks

This week, the global corn market finds itself at a pivotal moment, shaped by a combination of marginally downgraded supply prospects and new weather risks. The International Grains Council (IGC) has revised its world corn production estimate for 2025–26 to 1.276 billion metric tonnes—a modest drop of 1 million tonnes compared to the prior forecast. The outlook for Ukraine, a key exporter, has deteriorated with production now seen at 28.6 million tonnes, nearly 5% lower than its earlier projection. Nevertheless, global output still stands 51 million tonnes, or 4.2%, higher year-on-year, pointing to overall healthy fundamentals.

At the same time, a backdrop of ongoing market uncertainty exists due to changing crop expectations, mixed weather signals across the U.S. Midwest, Black Sea, and South America, and fluctuating speculative activity on major exchanges. The IGC’s bullish upgrade in wheat further adds to the competitive landscape for feed grains. Meanwhile, current offers in the European spot and Black Sea markets demonstrate relative price stability, though with hints of softening on French and Argentine origins.

📈 Current Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Update Date
Corn (Feed, 14.5% moisture)	Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0%	2025-06-27
Popcorn	Brazil	Dordrecht (NL)	FCA	0.74	0%	2025-06-20
Popcorn (40/42)	Argentina	Buenos Aires	FOB	0.82	-1%	2025-06-20
Corn (Yellow)	France	Paris	FOB	0.26	-4%	2025-06-20
Corn (Starch, Organic)	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.97	-1.5%	2025-06-20
Corn	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.21	0%	2025-06-20

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• IGC trims global corn forecast: A reduction by 1 million tonnes, largely from Ukraine.
• Ukraine crop outlook: Down to 28.6 MT (from 30 MT); war disruptions and weather cited as culprits.
• Global output: Still up 4.2% YOY, but supply chain risk remains high in Black Sea region.
• US harvest outlook: Stable for now, but July weather across the Corn Belt will be crucial.
• Strong feed wheat competition: Upgraded wheat production puts pressure on corn for feed use in some import markets.
• Chinese demand: Import activity expected to remain robust as domestic crop faces regional moisture deficits.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Balances

Country/Region	2024/25 Output (MT)	2025/26 Projection (MT)	Change (MT)
Global	1,225	1,276	+51
Ukraine	~29	28.6	-0.4
US	383	383*	0
China	287	290*	+3
Brazil	123	126*	+3

*USDA/IGC projections, final figures pending July WASDE

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• U.S. Midwest: Cooler-than-average temps over the next week with moderate rainfall; supportive for pollination, limiting drought expansion for now.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: Mild and generally dry, mixed soil moisture. High temps next week could stress crops further.
• Brazil (off-season): Southern states remain at risk for dryness, potentially capping late safrinha yields.
• China (North/Northeast): Localized dryness still a concern, though some showers forecast.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country/Region	Ending Stocks 2024/25 (MT)	2025/26 Outlook (MT)
Global	265	267*
US	49	51*
China	212	210*
Ukraine	1.8	1.5*

*Preliminary, subject to revision.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term price momentum is neutral to slightly bearish in Europe and the Black Sea; U.S. markets await pollination window weather signals.
• Monitor USDA July WASDE and acreage reports for fresh inputs.
• Watch for intensified volatility tied to U.S. Midwest heat in early July and potential escalations in the Black Sea conflict zone.
• End-users: Consider layering in coverage on dips, especially if physical markets show further discounts.
• Farmers/exporters: Protect margins using forward contracts or derivatives, particularly in Ukraine and South America.
• Speculators: Range-bound trade likely short-term until weather clarity emerges.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Region	Current Price (€/t)	3-Day Forecast
CBOT Corn (US, Dec 2025)	174	Stable to slightly firmer (+2 €/t)
Euronext Paris (Nov 2025)	205	Soft to neutral (-2 €/t)
Black Sea FOB (Ukraine)	210	Steady