Corn Market Closes Mixed – Old Crop Pressured, New Crop Recovers Slightly

➡ Corn Market Closes Mixed – Old Crop Pressured, New Crop Recovers Slightly

U.S. corn prices ended Friday with mixed results. Old crop contracts declined despite strong export demand, while new crop futures posted small gains. Euronext markets followed the U.S. downward, posting another weekly loss.

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After a week marked by volatility and macroeconomic pressure, corn futures diverged by maturity. The July contract fell again, while deferred positions showed mild strength. Market participants weighed export flows against fast planting conditions and rising supply expectations.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change	Weekly Change
Jul 2025	469.00	−3.25	−16.50 ct (−3.4%)
Sep 2025	440.00	−2.00	–
Dec 2025	450.25	−2.00	–

➡ The July contract extended losses, while the new crop gained on tighter positioning.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change	Weekly Change
Jun 2025	198.75	−0.75	−4.25 EUR (−2.1%)
Aug 2025	204.00	0.00	–
Nov 2025	201.50	0.00	–

➡ European prices remained under pressure, following Chicago and weak energy markets.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 🌱 U.S. Planting Outlook:
  • The weather remains mostly favourable
  • Dry Midwest conditions expected to speed up planting
  • USDA to release new Crop Progress data this week
• 🇺🇦 Ukraine Concerns:
  • Planting progress is 17% behind the 2024 pace
  • Soil moisture reported as adequate, but risk of further delays rising
• 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Surprise:
  • Stonex raised the Safrinha estimate:
    • 104.3 Mt, up from 101.6 Mt
  • The weather has improved, boosting confidence
• 🇫🇷 France Planting Slows Slightly:
  • 62% planted by April 28 (vs. 63% 5-year avg.)
  • Weekly gain: +12%, but rain in the southwest slowed progress
• 🚢 USDA Export Sales (week ending April 24):
  • Weekly sales: 1.014 Mt
  • Cumulative sales: 58.749 Mt
  • 91% of USDA annual target reached (vs. 94% 5-year avg, 86% previous year)
• 🏭 USDA Grain Crushing Report (March):
  • 454.197 million bu used for ethanol
  • +7.7% vs. February, −3.8% YoY
  • Marketing year total: 3.209 billion bu, highest since 2017/18
• 📉 CFTC Fund Positioning (as of April 29):
  • Net-long: 71,329 contracts (−41,476 Wow)
  • Largest weekly liquidation since early February

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Market Impact
🇺🇸 Midwest	Dry, planting window open	Bearish near-term supply outlook
🇫🇷 France	Wet in the southwest	Could delay fieldwork regionally
🇺🇦 Ukraine	Mixed, cool start	The risk of slow planting persists

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🌍 Corn Market Snapshot (Updated)

Indicator	Value	Comment
U.S. Old Crop Exports (YTD)	58.749 Mt	91% of the target, good pace
Brazil Safrinha (StoneX)	104.3 Mt	Raised +2.7 Mt
France Sowing Progress	62%	Slightly below the 5-year average
CFTC Net Long (April 29)	71,329 contracts	Big fund liquidation
USDA March Corn for Ethanol	454.2 million bu	Highest since 2017/18

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• ⚖️ Old crop remains under pressure from fund selling and technical levels
• 🔼 New crop may stabilise if planting slows or demand picks up
• 📉 Fund sentiment is weak, but export flows remain a cushion

Strategy:

• Reduce exposure on July contracts near-term
• Consider new crop positioning on dips
• Watch this week’s Crop Progress and export sales carefully

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (May 6–8)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	🔁 Cautiously neutral	Awaiting planting updates & fund signals
Euronext	🔽 Slightly bearish	Follows CBOT and soft macro environment
Dalian	🔁 Stable	No major domestic drivers

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