Corn Market Falls Sharply – U.S. Planting Accelerates, Global Pressure Weighs on Prices
U.S. corn futures plunged on Tuesday as planting moved ahead faster than expected. Global commodity weakness and improved South American crop outlooks added to the bearish sentiment.
Corn prices at the CBOT dropped sharply, with the July contract hitting a two-week low. Despite earlier rain, U.S. planting is progressing quickly, easing concerns over delays. Euronext contracts followed the downward trend, as improved weather and global economic concerns pressured markets.
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Market Situation & Price Development
CBOT (U.S. Market)
Delivery | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Daily Change |
---|---|---|
Jul 2025 | 470.25 | −13.00 |
Sep 2025 | 434.75 | −11.00 |
Dec 2025 | 444.50 | −11.00 |
Broad-based losses across maturities, driven by planting optimism and market sentiment.
Euronext (EU Market)
Delivery | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Daily Change |
---|---|---|
Jun 2025 | 200.25 | −1.00 |
Aug 2025 | 204.75 | −0.75 |
Nov 2025 | 202.50 | −0.75 |
Paris contracts continued to slide as planting progressed rapidly in France and Ukraine’s delays eased.
Key Market Drivers
U.S. Planting Progress Accelerates:
- Despite recent rainfall, planting is ahead of the 5-year average
- Conditions improving in key states: Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois
- USDA data: 12% planted vs. 10% avg.
Commodity Weather Group Outlook:
- Next 2 weeks: below-average rainfall
- Ideal for planting → bearish for short-term prices
South America Crop Revisions:
- Analyst Michael Cordonnier raised forecasts:
- Brazil: ↑ +3 Mt → 125 Mt
- Argentina: ↑ +2 Mt → 48 Mt
- Analyst Michael Cordonnier raised forecasts:
Macro Pressure:
- Weak U.S. economic indicators
- Lower crude oil, wheat, and soybean prices weighed on corn
USDA Export Flash Sales (April 30):
- 120,000 t sold to
Spain (2024/25 delivery)
- First large daily corn sale since mid-April
- 120,000 t sold to
E15 Fuel News:
- U.S. administration authorises nationwide sale of E15 ethanol fuel
- No market reaction – already priced in, demand effect uncertain
14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
Region | Trend | Market Impact |
---|---|---|
Drier, warmer | Accelerated planting, bearish signal | |
Rain eased stress | Supports improved Safrinha outlook | |
Drying expected | Ideal for harvest continuation |
Corn Market Snapshot (Updated)
Indicator | Value | Trend |
---|---|---|
U.S. Planting (April 28) | 12% complete | ↑ Above average |
Brazil Crop Forecast (Cordonnier) | 125 Mt | ↑ +3 Mt |
Argentina Crop Forecast | 48 Mt | ↑ +2 Mt |
CBOT July Future | 470.25 ct/bu | ↓ Two-week low |
USDA Flash Export | 120,000 t to |
Mildly supportive |
Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
Downtrend accelerated by better U.S. weather and global fundamentals
Macro risk and fund activity could extend correction
Exports and new planting data critical in coming days
Strategy:
- Reduce long exposure short-term
- Watch for rebound if exports surprise or weather changes
- Re-enter cautiously if July stabilizes above technical support (≈468 ct)
3-Day Price Forecast (May 1–3)
Market | Outlook | Comment |
---|---|---|
CBOT | Planting progress & macro pressure dominate | |
Euronext | Global sentiment weighs on EU contracts | |
Dalian | No major domestic catalyst currently |