🌽 Corn Market Gains as U.S. Export Inspections Hit Seasonal High 📈
Corn prices edged higher on both CBoT and Euronext, with U.S. export inspections reaching a seasonal high. While U.S. futures benefited from strong export data, Euronext contracts remained under pressure due to the strong euro. In South America, corn conditions remain mixed, with Argentina seeing improved forecasts due to rainfall, while Brazil faces planting delays due to excessive moisture. Will the market hold onto these gains, or is another pullback ahead? Get the latest insights in today’s report! 🚀📊
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📊 Market Overview
🔹 CBoT: The most traded May contract gained 2.75 ct to 472.00 ct/bu, supported by strong U.S. export data.
🔹 Euronext: The benchmark June contract rose 2.00 EUR to 213 EUR/t, breaking recent losses.
🌍 Key Market Drivers
📌 1. U.S. Export Inspections Hit Seasonal High
- USDA Weekly Export Inspections (March 6):
- 1.819 million metric tons (MMT) of corn inspected for export.
- 📈 +34.54% from the previous week and +56.04% from last year.
- Largest weekly total of the season, fueling optimism for demand.
📌 2. Mixed Weather Conditions in South America
- 🇦🇷 Argentina:
- Heavy rainfall improved crop forecasts, particularly in Buenos Aires and Córdoba.
- However, northern Argentina remains dry, causing stress in key growing areas.
- 🇧🇷 Brazil:
- Rain continues to slow Safrinha corn planting, with only 80% of fields planted (vs. 86% last year).
- Southern Brazil remains dry, potentially reducing yields in later stages.
📌 3. Brazil’s Corn Exports Decline
- February corn exports:
- 1.432 million tons, compared to 1.713 million tons in February 2024.
- Seasonal trend: Brazilian exports typically slow in March as ports prioritize soybean shipments.
📌 4. Trade War Uncertainty Still Looms
- U.S. corn futures saw their biggest drop since mid-2023 last week due to U.S. tariff concerns.
- Corn prices have rebounded 4% in the last three sessions following the delayed U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 458.75 | 458.00 | 458.00 | 458.00 | 458.00 | -0.75 | -0.16% |
| May 25 | 472.00 | 472.00 | 472.75 | 470.25 | 472.50 | +0.50 | +0.11% |
| Jul 25 | 478.50 | 478.50 | 479.00 | 476.75 | 479.00 | +0.50 | +0.10% |
| Sep 25 | 451.25 | 451.00 | 451.75 | 450.00 | 451.75 | +0.50 | +0.11% |
| Dec 25 | 455.00 | 454.50 | 455.25 | 453.50 | 455.25 | +0.25 | +0.05% |
📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 213.00 | – | – | – | 213.00 | +2.00 | +0.95% |
| Aug 25 | 219.00 | – | – | – | 219.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Nov 25 | 216.00 | – | – | – | 216.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Market | Expected Trend | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| CBoT Corn | 🔼 Slightly Bullish | Strong export data, delayed tariffs |
| Euronext Corn | 🔄 Neutral | Euro strength limiting gains |
| Argentina & Brazil | 🔼 Weather-Driven Volatility | Rain in Argentina, slow planting in Brazil |
🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)
📍 Current Conditions: Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 More rain expected, supporting crop development.
- 🌡 Temperatures remain warm, but moisture levels are better than last month.
🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)
📍 Current Conditions: Soybean harvest is ahead of last year, benefiting corn planting.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Rain could slow remaining corn planting but support early crop growth.
- 🌤 Drier conditions in southern Brazil could aid planting progress.
📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks
📌 Stock Levels (Since 2021)
| Season | Global Stocks (Mio. t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 Mio. t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 Mio. t |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 Mio. t |
📉 Since January 2025, global corn stocks have dropped by 25.5 million tons!
🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison
| Country | 2022/23 (Mio. t) | 2023/24 (Mio. t) | 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 382 | 385 | 390 | +1.3% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 51 | 49 | 46 | -6.1% |
📊 Summary: Brazil is continuing steady growth, while Argentina faces drought-related losses.
📌 Summary & Market Outlook
📊 Corn markets gain momentum as U.S. export inspections hit a seasonal high.
🌎 South American weather remains a mixed factor – Argentina sees relief, while Brazil faces delays.
📉 U.S. exports are increasing, but global trade uncertainty remains a challenge.
🔍 Corn futures likely to consolidate in the short term, with export data and South American crop developments driving sentiment.
📢 Stay updated for further market insights! 🚀