Corn Market in Crisis: Prices Plunge Amid Surging Pressure on Growers

The global corn market is under significant strain as prices have collapsed, with fallout reverberating through the farming sector. According to the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), U.S. corn prices have plummeted over 50% since their 2022 highs, while input costs have barely decreased. The current situation sees producers losing approximately $0.85 per bushel, a scenario described as unsustainable and likely to worsen without swift policy intervention. The NCGA has urged action, proposing increased ethanol mandates and expanded export opportunities to revive flagging demand. The growing imbalance between revenue and expenses threatens the stability of rural communities across key producing nations.

Against this backdrop, weak international demand, large inventories in major exporters, and tough competition have combined to keep prices suppressed. Meanwhile, variations in weather forecasts and crop progress are under close scrutiny, as any harvest disruptions could quickly alter the market trajectory. Farmers, traders, and end-users must navigate heightened volatility and monitor upcoming policy changes, especially with ongoing calls for government support. The year ahead will test the resilience and adaptability of the corn sector, as the stakes for both market participants and broader rural economies remain exceptionally high.

📈 Prices & Market Overview

Exchange/Location	Product	Type/Grade	Country	City	Delivery	Latest Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Paris	Corn	Yellow	France	Paris	FOB	0.24	0.24	0%	Stable, bearish undertone
Dordrecht	Popcorn	–	Brazil	NL	FCA	0.75	0.75	0%	Stable
Odesa	Corn	Yellow feed, 14.5% max moisture	Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.27	0.26	+3.8%	Mildly bullish EU demand
Odesa	Corn	–	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.20	0%	Unchanged – logjam
New Delhi	Corn (Starch, organic)	–	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.97	1.92	+2.6%	Premium, niche
Buenos Aires	Popcorn	Expansion 40/42	Argentina	Buenos Aires	FOB	0.82	0.82	0%	Firm, specialty

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Corn prices have dropped sharply; U.S. farmers face rising losses amid sticky input costs.
• Global supply remains robust, with major exporters like the U.S., Ukraine, and Brazil maintaining large inventories following strong harvests.
• Drought concerns in parts of the U.S. Midwest and Eastern Europe could tighten projected output if conditions worsen during the pollination phase.
• China, the world’s largest importer, has trimmed purchases amid increased domestic production and alternative feed use.
• Policy is central: The NCGA presses for expanded ethanol use and improved trade flows to support U.S. growers.

📊 Fundamental Data & Market Sentiment

• USDA projections: U.S. ending stocks remain above 2.1 billion bushels, pointing to ample supply, but downward yield revisions are being considered as the weather outlook evolves.
• Speculative Positioning: Hedge funds and managed money remain net short on corn, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment despite recent short covering.
• Exports: Export pace lags last year by 7% for U.S. corn, while Brazil continues aggressive sales, especially to Asian markets.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• US Midwest: Short-term weather remains favorable, but forecasts suggest a hot, drier pattern could stress crops, especially in Iowa and Illinois, threatening yield potential.
• Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Romania): Mild rains offer relief but are insufficient to fully restore subsoil moisture. Continued monitoring essential as late pollination approaches.
• South America: Off-season (safrinha) harvest in Brazil has been robust, buffering global supplies. Early risk for Argentine plantings if La Niña develops by autumn.

🌏 Production, Stocks & Global Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production Forecast (M tons)	Estimated Stocks (M tons)
U.S.A.	382	49
Brazil	118	11
Ukraine	27	4
Argentina	56	2.5
EU	59	7
China (importer)	285	206

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Exercise caution with new crop sales; consider scaling in if weather disrupts output, or policy shifts boost demand.
• Traders: Monitor speculative positioning and USDA reports closely for short-covering rallies—potential volatility ahead.
• End Users: Secure coverage for Q4 2025 at current low levels; risk of price rebound if weather or policy changes unexpectedly.
• Stay alert to government policy announcements, especially regarding ethanol use or expanded Chinese buying.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Spot Price Forecast (€/kg)	Trend Direction
Paris (FR)	0.24 – 0.25	Range-bound, slight upside
Odesa (UA)	0.26 – 0.28	Steady to firm
CBOT (US, USD/bushel)	4.10 – 4.20	Range-bound, watching weather