Corn Market in Focus: Global Pressure Amid Strong US Crop Prospects and EU Output Revision

The global corn market is currently navigating a phase marked by downward price pressure, robust US crop prospects, and shifting European production forecasts. On major exchanges, corn prices have softened, reflecting both favourable weather in the US Midwest and a slightly reduced output outlook from the European Commission. The most active July contract at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) dropped 4 cents to 447 cents/bushel, while Euronext’s August future fell by €1.75 to €196.50/tonne.

These declines are rooted in excellent US growing conditions, with timely rains expected to support crop emergence and early development, and in the EU’s revised 2025/26 corn production estimate, now down by 1.8 million tonnes to 63.8 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, demand remains lively, as evidenced by recent USDA export sales to Mexico and other destinations, and ethanol production in the US hitting an eight-week high. However, ample supply and favourable weather are keeping the market on the defensive, despite pockets of export strength and tightening ethanol stocks. As traders await fresh USDA export data after the US holiday, the near-term outlook is firmly tied to weather developments and the pace of US and global exports.

📈 Prices: Key Corn Futures at Major Exchanges

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Sentiment
CBOT	Jul 25	449.00	+2.00	US-Cent/bu	Bearish/Neutral
CBOT	Sep 25	429.00	+1.75	US-Cent/bu	Bearish
Euronext	Aug 25	196.50	-1.75	EUR/t	Bearish
DCE (China)	Jul 25	2,328.00	+6.00	CNY/t	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Crop Prospects: Excellent planting and emergence conditions in the Midwest. Rain forecast for the next 6–10 days supports strong yield potential.
• EU Production: European Commission cuts 2025/26 corn output forecast by 1.8 Mt to 63.8 Mt, offset by higher barley output.
• USDA Exports: New export sales: 104,000 t to Mexico, 101,096 t to unknown destinations for 2024/25 delivery.
• Ethanol Demand: US ethanol production at 1.056 million bpd (8-week high); stocks down, usage up as gasoline deliveries surge.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds remain cautious, with recent price weakness reflecting ample supply and strong crop outlooks.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

Region	Production 2025/26 (Mt)	Change vs Apr
EU	63.8	-1.8
US (USDA est.)	Estimated strong	—
China	Stable	—
Ukraine	Stable	—

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• US Midwest: Dry spell through weekend aids planting completion; widespread rain expected in 6–10 days, favourable for germination and early growth.
• EU: Mixed conditions; some dryness in Spain/France, but overall not critical yet. Watch for June rainfall patterns.
• Ukraine/Russia: Mostly favourable, though localised dryness is possible.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country/Region	2024/25 Output (Mt)	2025/26 (Proj.)	Stocks Trend
USA	389 (est.)	Strong (proj.)	Stable/Up
EU	65.6	63.8	Down
China	280	280	Stable
Ukraine	29	29	Stable

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term price risk remains to the downside due to strong US weather and ample supply.
• Monitor US export pace and weather-driven yield prospects for directional cues.
• Watch for EU weather volatility and any further production downgrades.
• End users: Consider incremental coverage on price dips, especially for Q3–Q4 needs.
• Producers: Hold off on aggressive sales unless weather turns adverse or export demand accelerates.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Forecast Range	Sentiment
CBOT	Jul 25	445–452 US-Cent/bu	Neutral/Bearish
Euronext	Aug 25	195–198 EUR/t	Bearish
DCE	Jul 25	2,320–2,340 CNY/t	Stable

Spot/FOB Market Offers:

• Popcorn, AR (FOB): $0.83/kg
• Corn, FR (FOB): €0.27/kg
• Corn (starch, organic), IN (FOB): $2.04/kg
• Corn, UA (FOB): $0.21/kg
• Corn (yellow feed, 98%, FCA), UA: $0.25/kg