The global corn market enters July 2025 with prices hovering in narrow ranges, but beneath the surface, volatility is brewing. A combination of mixed weather patterns across the key growing regions, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties in the Black Sea, and balanced but tightening stocks is keeping traders alert. On the major futures exchanges, both US and European corn contracts have held steady or posted marginal gains, while Dalian Corn on the Chinese exchange faced mild pressure.
Market participants are closely watching USDA updates, acreage revisions, and global trade behavior, especially as China’s re-entrance as an aggressive buyer could shift world flows unexpectedly. Meanwhile, physical market prices remain steady in main origination hubs, with offers from France and Ukraine providing a clear benchmark for international buyers. Detailed weather outlooks point to some concern for late-season yield potential, especially in the US Midwest and parts of Ukraine, where recent precipitation deficits meet the challenge of high summer heat. As the second half of 2025 unfolds, the corn market looks poised for potentially sharper moves. Supply risks, trade competition, and the evolution of speculative positions will be the key drivers to watch.
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📈 Prices at Key Exchanges
| Exchange | Contract | Last Price | Weekly Change | Currency | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext (Paris) | Aug 25 | 199.75 | 0.00% | EUR/t | Neutral |
| Euronext (Paris) | Nov 25 | 200.00 | 0.00% | EUR/t | Neutral |
| CBOT (Chicago) | Sep 25 | 400.50 | +0.63% | US-Cent/bu | Slightly Bullish |
| CBOT (Chicago) | Dec 25 | 415.50 | +0.30% | US-Cent/bu | Neutral |
| DCE (Dalian) | Sep 25 | 2320.00 | -0.73% | CNY/t | Slightly Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- USDA Acreage & Stocks: Recent USDA reports confirm US planted area close to earlier expectations, but June’s quarterly stocks point to slightly tighter carryout following robust domestic feed use.
- Ukraine & Brazil: Ukraine continues to export steadily despite logistical risks, while Brazil is wrapping up a good safrinha crop, keeping export competition robust.
- China’s Import Appetite: Chinese demand for feed corn is stabilising, but stronger imports could materialise in the coming months if internal prices continue to firm up.
- Euronext Physical Offers: European (French) FOB offers stand at EUR 0.26/kg, showing stability, with Ukrainian alternatives slightly cheaper at around EUR 0.20-0.25/kg depending on quality and delivery terms.
📊 Fundamentals Snapshot
| Origin | Product | Location | Offer Price | Unit | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FR | Corn (yellow, FOB) | Paris, FR | 0.26 | EUR/kg | 2025-07-04 |
| UA | Corn (FOB) | Odesa, UA | 0.20 | EUR/kg | 2025-07-04 |
| UA | Corn (yellow feed, FCA) | Odesa, UA | 0.25 | EUR/kg | 2025-07-03 |
| IN | Corn (starch, organic, FOB) | New Delhi, IN | 1.97 | EUR/kg | 2025-07-04 |
- Export flows from Brazil and the US remain healthy; Ukraine volumes are resilient but are facing ongoing logistical risks.
- Physical market remains well-supplied but not oversupplied; price competition among Black Sea, European, and South American origins.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Yield Implications
- US Midwest: Forecasts signal alternating hot and dry periods with scattered rain, not enough to offset dryness risk in key states (Iowa, Illinois), potentially impacting late pollination and grain fill.
- Ukraine: Drier-than-average weather continues with some modest rain, but heat stress is a concern—close monitoring is essential for later-planted fields.
- Brazil: Safrinha harvest is progressing well; no major weather risks remain in the main growing areas.
- Europe: France and southeastern Europe have seen spotty rains; overall outlook is fair, but forecasted temperature spikes could harm yields in the southern belt.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (mt) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (mt) |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 382 | 56 |
| Brazil | 124 | 7 |
| China | 287 | 207 |
| Ukraine | 28 | 3 |
| EU-27 | 63 | 8 |
- Global stocks remain comfortable but are tightening year-on-year, mainly due to robust demand and occasional yield setbacks.
- China’s state reserves are large, but actual availability for the feed market is periodically constrained by quality and policy release.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Watch US weather in July-August: hot/dry spells could trigger swift price rallies.
- Monitor speculative positions: Managed money recently trimmed shorts, potentially fueling short-covering if weather worries mount.
- FOB offers from Ukraine provide attractive purchase points but carry ongoing war/logistics risk—diversification recommended.
- Bullish bias favoured if NOAA or EU weather services flag a persistent US Midwest drought.
- Importers: Consider booking partial needs on price dips; keep optionality open for late summer/early fall coverage.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Product | Region | Current Price | Forecast Range (Next 3 Days) | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext Nov 25 | Europe | 200.00 | 199.5 – 202.0 | EUR/t |
| CBOT Dec 25 | US Midwest | 415.50 | 414 – 419 | US-Cent/bu |
| DCE Sep 25 | China | 2320.0 | 2310 – 2335 | CNY/t |
| Ukrainian Yellow Corn (FOB) | Black Sea | 0.20 | 0.19 – 0.21 | EUR/kg |
| French Corn (FOB) | France | 0.26 | 0.25 – 0.27 | EUR/kg |