Corn Market Insights: Price Stabilization Amid Shifting Global Flows and Strong Ethanol Demand

Following a period of downward pressure, the corn market is showing early signs of stabilisation this week. On Wednesday, CBOT corn contracts managed to reverse some of Tuesday’s losses that saw prices reach a six-month low, with the July front month closing slightly higher. Euronext corn, meanwhile, displayed mixed performance, as the August future dropped a modest 0.25 EUR per tonne. Low prices in the US have sparked buying interest and were also buoyed by a weaker US dollar, giving American exporters a competitive edge on the global stage. However, this price suppression is hurting export competition in Ukraine, where June corn exports are forecasted to halve compared to May as Ukrainian suppliers struggle to match US offers, a challenge compounded by continued geopolitical uncertainty.

Despite abundant supply and price pressure, fundamental demand for corn remains solid. The latest EIA data highlighted a surge in weekly ethanol production—the highest since mid-March—reflecting robust industrial demand and a supportive domestic market in the US. Upcoming USDA export figures are likely to draw trader focus, with expectations for respectable old crop bookings and cautious new crop interest. Meanwhile, weather conditions in the US Corn Belt remain broadly favourable, which should maintain crop yield prospects but may cap short-term price rallies unless adverse patterns emerge. Against this backdrop, key global players—like the US, Ukraine, and Brazil—continue to adjust to shifting export flows and stock levels, highlighting the delicate balance between supply resilience and demand drivers in the 2024/25 crop year.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Currency/Unit	Sentiment
CBOT	Jul 25	437.75	438.75	-1.00 (-0.23%)	US-Cent/bu	Stabilizing
CBOT	Sep 25	429.25	428.00	+1.25 (+0.29%)	US-Cent/bu	Slightly Bullish
Euronext	Aug 25	192.25	191.25	+1.00 (+0.52%)	EUR/t	Mixed
Euronext	Nov 25	198.50	197.75	+0.75 (+0.38%)	EUR/t	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US prices at a six-month low have rejuvenated buying interest but limited gains as favourable weather supports yield prospects.
• Ukraine’s exports for June are projected to halve to 1 million tons, down from 2 million tons in May, due to diminishing competitive advantage against US offers.
• The US dominant position in global export markets remains intact, while Ukraine’s full-season 2024/25 export estimate sits at 22 million tons after having already shipped 20.6 million tons as of early June.
• On the demand side, US ethanol production hit its highest weekly level since mid-March, with exports also bouncing to an eight-week high, pointing to solid industrial absorption.

📊 Fundamentals

• Favourable conditions in the US Corn Belt support stable crop progress, yet price recovery is capped without adverse weather or unexpected demand surges.
• USDA export data awaited, with market participants expecting old crop bookings between 775,000 and 1.4 million tons and new crop bookings in a cautious 20,000–250,000 tons range.
• EIA reports sharply stronger ethanol output but only a modest build in stocks, indicating healthy domestic and external consumption channels.
• Spot prices at origin remain under pressure but show some differentiation:

Product	Origin	Grade/Type	FOB Price (USD/kg)	Prev. Price
Popcorn	Argentina	expansion 40/42	0.83	0.83
Corn	France	yellow	0.27	0.27
Corn	India	organic, starch	2.02	2.04
Corn	Ukraine		0.21	0.21
Corn	Ukraine	feed grade	0.25	0.25

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Corn Belt: Generally favourable weather with good soil moisture and moderate temperatures. No severe drought conditions reported, supporting solid yield potential barring last-minute weather shocks.
• Ukraine: Crop conditions remain mostly adequate, though patchy rainfall could stress later-planted fields.
• Brazil: Safrinha corn harvest begins with average to above-average yields anticipated, supported by recent rains.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (m t)	2024/25 Exports (m t)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (m t)
USA	387	56	55
Brazil	122	48	11
Ukraine	28	22	2.1
EU	63	4.5	9.5
China	288	0.2	205

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Short-term price stabilisation is likely as weather supports ample supply, but speculative buyers appear at lows.
• Monitor the USDA export report for signals of new demand or confirmation of slow off-take—surprises could drive volatility.
• Producers: Consider hedging a portion of the new crop if prices rally toward resistance levels; downside remains limited, but upside needs weather or demand catalyst.
• End-users and importers: Strategic buying recommended on dips as long-term supply risk looks moderate unless weather deteriorates.
• Speculators: Range-trading strategies favoured; wait for a clearer break from current levels or fresh fundamental developments.

📊 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Forecast Range	Currency/Unit	Bias
CBOT	Jul 25	435–442	US-Cent/bu	Neutral
Euronext	Aug 25	191–194	EUR/t	Slightly Up
CBOT	Dec 25	444–448	US-Cent/bu	Steady

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