🌽 Corn Market Lacks Momentum Amid Weak Demand and Rising EU Imports 📉
Corn prices struggled for direction, with futures trading mixed on both CBoT and Euronext. The market lacks strong bullish catalysts, as traders await the USDA’s upcoming planting intentions report and weigh the impact of rising EU imports. Meanwhile, Brazil remains absent from the global corn market, while Ukrainian and U.S. corn dominate European imports. Will demand pick up, or will prices remain under pressure? Get the latest insights in today’s market update! 🚀📊
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📊 Market Overview
🔹 CBoT: The most-traded May contract fell 1.50 ct to 457.25 ct/bu, weighed down by weak demand and a sluggish wheat market.
🔹 Euronext: The benchmark June contract declined by 1.00 EUR to 214.00 EUR/t, as a strong euro and weak global sentiment pressured prices.
🌍 Key Market Drivers
📌 1. Corn Market Lacks Momentum as Soybean Ratio Favors Planting
- The corn-to-soybean price ratio for the new crop is currently at 2.24, making corn planting in the U.S. slightly more attractive than soybeans.
- USDA’s upcoming planting intentions report (end of March) will confirm if U.S. farmers increase corn acreage.
- S&P Global estimates 94.3 million acres of corn, an increase of 800,000 acres over previous projections.
📌 Market impact:
- Traders are waiting for official confirmation of acreage expansion, which could add bearish pressure on the market.
📌 2. EU Corn Imports Continue to Rise
- EU corn imports for 2024/25 reached 14.82 million tons as of March 16, marking a 9% increase year-over-year.
- Over the past two weeks, 1 million tons of corn entered the EU, primarily from:
- Ukraine (689,000 tons)
- U.S. (264,000 tons)
- Brazil is largely absent from the global market, with exports focused on soybeans.
- March corn exports from Brazil are expected at 413,000 tons, a sharp increase from 141,000 tons in March 2024.
📌 Market impact:
- U.S. corn remains competitive in the EU, but rising imports could limit price gains.
- If Brazil resumes exports in Q2, additional downward pressure on prices is expected.
📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 458.75 | 458.25 | 458.25 | 455.75 | 457.25 | -1.50 | -0.33% |
| Jul 25 | 468.00 | 467.00 | 467.50 | 465.00 | 465.75 | -2.25 | -0.48% |
| Sep 25 | 447.25 | 447.00 | 447.00 | 445.25 | 445.75 | -1.50 | -0.34% |
| Dec 25 | 454.25 | 453.75 | 453.75 | 452.25 | 453.00 | -1.25 | -0.28% |
📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 214.00 | – | – | – | 214.00 | -1.00 | -0.47% |
| Aug 25 | 219.25 | – | – | – | 219.25 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Nov 25 | 215.00 | – | – | – | 215.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Market | Expected Trend | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| CBoT Corn | 🔽 Bearish | Weak demand, anticipation of U.S. planting report |
| Euronext Corn | 🔄 Neutral | Rising EU imports vs. strong euro |
| Ukraine & Brazil | 🔼 Volatile | Brazilian exports expected to increase |
🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)
📍 Current Conditions: Recent rainfall improved late-season yields.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Scattered rain expected, helping crops in Buenos Aires & Córdoba.
- 🌡 Northern Argentina remains dry, posing potential yield risks.
🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)
📍 Current Conditions: 92% of the safrinha crop is planted, but concerns over late planting effects remain.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Rain slows late-season planting, but moisture supports early crops.
- 🌤 Drier conditions in southern Brazil could impact yields.
📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks
📌 Stock Levels (Since 2021)
| Season | Global Stocks (Mio. t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 Mio. t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 Mio. t |
| 2024/25 | 288.94 | -6.9 Mio. t |
📉 Since January 2025, global corn stocks have dropped by 22.56 million tons!
🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison
| Country | 2022/23 (Mio. t) | 2023/24 (Mio. t) | 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 382 | 385 | 390 | +1.3% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 51 | 49 | 44.5 | -9.2% |
📊 Summary: Brazil remains stable, while Argentina’s production is falling more than expected.
📌 Summary & Market Outlook
📊 Corn markets remain directionless, awaiting key USDA planting data and export developments.
🌎 EU imports continue to rise, mainly from Ukraine and the U.S., keeping prices under pressure.
📉 Brazilian exports remain low but are expected to pick up, potentially increasing competition.
🔍 Corn futures are likely to remain range-bound, with global demand and weather developments shaping the next move.
📢 Stay tuned for further market insights!