Corn Market Navigates Weather Risks and Lower Ukraine Forecasts Amid Steady Demand

The global corn market is at a crossroads, balancing favourable US growing conditions with emerging risks in the Black Sea supply. This week, corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) edged higher, buoyed by stronger soybean and crude oil markets, while European prices at Euronext softened as rains improved European crop prospects.

Yet, the persistent dryness in Ukraine—the world’s fourth-largest exporter—has reignited supply concerns, pushing the Ukrainian agriculture minister to forecast a crop nearly 15% below USDA expectations. Meanwhile, the US crop progress report highlighted timely planting and robust crop ratings across the Corn Belt. Market participants are closely monitoring international weather patterns and shifting global supply dynamics. Despite mixed price signals, EU corn imports remain elevated, positioning the market for continued volatility as the growing season advances.

📈 Market Prices

Exchange	Contract (Month/Year)	Last Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT	Jul 25	440.00 US-Cent/bu	+1.50 (+0.34%)	Positive, buoyed by soybeans & crude
Euronext	Aug 25	191.50 EUR/t	-1.75 (-0.91%)	Weaker, improved EU weather
DCE (China)	Jul 25	2,326 CNY/t	-13 (-0.56%)	Mixed, local pressure

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukraine: Ongoing drought has lowered crop expectations to 26 Mt, beneath USDA’s 30.5 Mt projection and last year’s 26.8 Mt.
• United States: 93% of corn sowing complete. USDA reports 69% of crops are rated good/excellent—a 1-point weekly improvement.
• EU Imports: Cumulative 2024/25 imports at 18.20 Mt (+7% year-on-year), indicating healthy European demand and partial compensation for regional weather variability.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds have reduced net shorts after recent weather-driven risk premiums and soy/oil price strength.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparisons

Country/Region	2024/25 Prod. (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)	Comment
USA	389*	51.5*	Bumper crop expected (subject to weather)
Brazil	118*	9.5*	Competitive exports, but the 2nd crop at risk from dryness
Ukraine	26(est, gov), 30.5 (USDA)	1.6*	Drought cuts potential
EU	64*	17.5*	Increasing self-sufficiency, robust imports
China	288*	209*	Largest producer/importer

*Last known USDA/IGO estimate, subject to revision

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• USA Corn Belt: Recent rains maintain optimal soil moisture. Above-average temperatures ahead but relief showers expected—favours continued crop progress.
• Ukraine: Dryness persists in critical stages. Outlook uncertain; lack of rain could further cut yields.
• Europe (Central & Western): Beneficial rainfall last week has eased drought worries and supported young crop establishment.

Overall, weather risks are receding in the US and Europe, but are acute in Ukraine—potential for volatility remains if forecasts change.

🗺️ Regional and Product Price Table

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Current Price (USD/kg)	Trend	Link
Popcorn	Brazil	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	0.75	New listing	Quote
Popcorn (expansion, 40/42)	Argentina	Buenos Aires, AR	FOB	0.83	Steady	Quote
Corn (yellow)	France	Paris, FR	FOB	0.27	Stable	Quote

📆 Market Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• ⚖️ Short-term support for CBOT corn from weather risks and energy markets; upside capped if Ukrainian/EU weather improves.
• 🔎 Monitor Ukraine weather and EU import trends; significant production cuts could spark further rallies.
• 📉 Hedging advised on rallies—use price strength to protect new crop sales, especially with revived US/EU crop prospects.
• ⏳ Importers should consider locking needs for Q3 while prices remain moderate compared to early-spring highs.
• 📊 Speculators: Watch fund flows and positioning as the weather risk premium fades and focus shifts to demand recovery.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Direction	Forecast
CBOT (Jul 25)	Up/Sideways	435–445 US-Cent/bu
Euronext (Aug 25)	Sideways/Down	188–193 EUR/t
DCE (Jul 25)	Sideways/Down	2300–2340 CNY/t

Expect continued volatility as the market weighs US and EU yield prospects against Ukrainian supply risk and global macro drivers.