Corn Market Outlook: Brazilian Harvest, US Prospects, and Export-Driven Price Dynamics

The global corn market is entering a pivotal phase as the Brazilian second-crop harvest begins in Mato Grosso, albeit at a slower pace than usual. The real acceleration is expected in mid-June, but several factors are already shaping price movements and market sentiment. Brazilian growers are increasingly favoring soybeans for the second half of the year, exerting downward pressure on corn prices. Credit constraints and high domestic interest rates have forced many to sell corn to cover immediate expenses, while a robust outlook for the US corn crop and excellent weather in Brazil are amplifying supply expectations. This has led to advanced price reductions, even as buyers remain cautious, absorbing only necessary volumes until the new harvest arrives. The domestic market in Brazil faces a transition period with limited liquidity, and the export channel is set to play a decisive role in price recovery as the harvest progresses. Internationally, US weather in July will be crucial for pollination and yield, potentially injecting volatility into global prices. With Brazil expected to export at least 40 million tons this year and a domestic crop surpassing 125 million tons, export logistics and port prices will define the market’s balance. The week closed with Brazilian port indications between BRL 67–71 for July–September shipments, while international prices remain subdued. Market participants should closely watch US weather, Brazilian export flows, and currency movements, as these will set the tone for the coming months.

📈 Latest Corn Market Prices

Origin	Location	Type	Delivery	Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Ukraine	Odesa	Yellow feed grade, 14.5% max moisture	FCA	0.26	0.00	Neutral
Argentina	Buenos Aires	Popcorn, expansion 40/42	FOB	0.85	0.00	Stable
France	Paris	Yellow	FOB	0.29	0.00	Neutral
India	New Delhi	Starch (organic)	FOB	2.07	0.00	Stable
Ukraine	Odesa	Yellow	FOB	0.22	0.00	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Brazil: Second-crop harvest off to a slow start, but productivity outlook remains high. Excellent April–May rainfall supports a potential record crop (>96 mln tons for second crop; >125 mln total).
• US: Planting conditions excellent so far; critical pollination phase in July will determine yield. Speculation of a super crop is weighing on global prices.
• Domestic Brazil: Credit crunch and high interest rates force growers to sell corn, increasing supply pressure. Soybean retention is prioritized for potential higher prices later in the year.
• Exports: Brazil expected to export at least 40 mln tons in 2025, with shipments intensifying from July. Domestic market reliant on export pace for price stabilization.
• Inventories: Market dismisses low carryover stock estimates (<2 mln tons); real stocks and crop size are larger than some reports suggest.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Latest WASDE projects ample global stocks, but weather risk remains for US crop.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains net short on CBOT corn, reflecting bearish sentiment amid strong supply outlook.
• Exchange Rate: Weak Brazilian real is not sufficiently supporting export prices, keeping domestic prices subdued at ports.
• Demand: Domestic demand in Brazil steady from feed and ethanol sectors, but not enough to absorb surplus without robust exports.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Brazil (Mato Grosso, Goiás, Paraná): April–May rainfall was above average, supporting crop development. No major weather threats expected in the next 7 days; harvest conditions favorable.
• US Midwest: Good soil moisture and planting progress; July weather (pollination/silking) remains the key risk period for yield.
• Europe (France, Ukraine): Mild, wet spring supports early crop growth; no immediate drought threats.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (mln tons)	2024/25 Exports (mln tons)	Ending Stocks (mln tons)
Brazil	125+	40+	~9
United States	380*	55	52
Argentina	56	38	2
Ukraine	28	24	2
China (importer)	290	0.5	210

*US production estimate subject to July weather risk.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor US Midwest weather in July—any heat or drought during pollination could trigger price rallies.
• Brazilian growers: Consider forward contracts for export, as domestic prices may remain pressured until port line-ups improve.
• Buyers: Short-term coverage recommended; wait for further harvest pressure before making large purchases.
• Exporters: Prepare for increased shipping activity from July onward; premiums may improve as global demand picks up.
• Speculators: Watch for volatility spikes tied to US weather and Brazilian export flows.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (USD/kg)	Forecast (3 days)	Sentiment
CBOT (US)	0.19*	Stable to slightly lower	Bearish
Euronext (France)	0.29	Stable	Neutral
Brazil (Ports)	BRL 69–71	Slight downside, then stabilization	Neutral to slightly bearish
Ukraine (Odesa)	0.22–0.26	Stable	Neutral

*CBOT price is approximate and for reference only; check latest futures for updates.