Volatility in Corn Prices Amidst Seasonal Harvests
The corn market is currently experiencing significant fluctuations. In Bihar’s Vihar region, corn prices surged by 32% over three days. Only to drop by $0,90 per quintal shortly thereafter. Market analysts predict a further decline of $2,40 per quintal in the near future due to increasing market supply.
Corn is harvested during both the Rabi and Kharif seasons. By the end of March, approximately 68-70% of the Kharif season corn from states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka has been harvested. Currently, substantial corn crops are ready for harvest across various districts. Like in Bihar, including Khagaria, Begusarai, Gulab Bagh, Darbhanga, and others.
Price Pressures and Competitive Disadvantages
The influx of new corn has spiked by 32% in the Darbhanga and Gulab Bagh areas, stabilizing prices at $25,50 to $25,80 per quintal, aligning with rates in Haryana and Punjab, which are around $29,10 to $29,40 per quintal. Notably, Bihar’s corn, known for its higher starch content and hybrid quality, is preferred by industries, adversely affecting the demand for corn from Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
Although there is speculation that prices might dip to $22,80 per quintal in Khagaria, high prices of other cereal commodities, including wheat, might prevent a significant breakdown below $23,40 this season.
Inventory and Market Projections
In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, existing corn stocks are expected to clear out within the next 15 days. Meanwhile, the corn supply in Bihar’s producer markets is set to double, potentially pushing prices down to $23,40 per quintal by the end of the month from the current $25,80.
Production Insights and Future Expectations
This Kharif season witnessed a corn production of 22.7 million metric tonnes with considerable quantities already sold. Traders and farmers anticipate an additional 0.6 million metric tonnes of Rabi corn from Bihar compared to last year. With current stocks and impending harvests, market participants in Haryana and Punjab are preparing for potential sales below $26,40 per quintal.
The coming weeks are crucial as they will determine the price stability of maize across key producing states.