Corn Market Outlook: Stability Amid Global Uncertainty and Weather Risks

Corn Market Outlook: Stability Amid Global Uncertainty and Weather Risks

The global corn market is navigating a period of relative price stability, despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and evolving weather patterns in key producing regions. As of late May 2025, benchmark futures on Euronext, CBOT, and Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) show little change from previous sessions, reflecting a wait-and-see approach among traders. European corn prices remain steady, with the Euronext November 2025 contract at EUR 199.25/t, while CBOT December 2025 corn hovers near 442.50 USc/bu.

In China, DCE corn for July 2025 is quoted at CNY 2,322/t, also posting minimal daily gains. Physical market offers echo this stability, with French FOB yellow corn at $0.27/kg and Ukrainian FOB corn at $0.21–0.25/kg. Supply-side fundamentals are being closely watched: the USDA’s latest acreage estimates and global stock forecasts indicate comfortable, though not excessive, inventory levels.

Meanwhile, the weather outlook is increasingly pivotal. North American planting has progressed smoothly, but the forecast for June points to potential heat stress in the US Midwest and ongoing dryness in parts of Eastern Europe, raising questions about yield potential. China’s production remains robust, but import demand could shift if global prices move. Speculative positioning remains neutral, with open interest stable across major contracts. In summary, while the corn market currently enjoys a lull, the coming weeks will be critical as weather risks and global trade flows come into sharper focus.

📈 Prices & Exchange Overview

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext	Nov 25	199.25	0.00%	EUR/t	Steady
CBOT	Dec 25	442.50	-0.23%	USC/bu	Neutral
DCE	Jul 25	2,322	+0.13%	CNY/t	Stable

🌍 Physical Market Offers

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery	Price	Currency	Update Date
Argentina	Popcorn 40/42	Buenos Aires	FOB	0.83	USD/kg	2025-05-28
France	Yellow	Paris	FOB	0.27	USD/kg	2025-05-28
India	Starch (organic)	New Delhi	FOB	2.04	USD/kg	2025-05-28
Ukraine	Yellow	Odesa	FOB	0.21	USD/kg	2025-05-28
Ukraine	Feed grade (98%)	Odesa	FCA	0.25	USD/kg	2025-05-23

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Reports: Latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) indicate global corn stocks are adequate but tightening slightly compared to last year. US and Brazil output remain strong, but Argentina faces yield uncertainty after dry spells.
• Crop Acreage: US corn acreage is projected at 90.5 million acres, down marginally year-on-year. EU plantings are stable, but Ukraine’s acreage is under pressure due to ongoing conflict and input costs.
• Global Inventories: Ending stocks-to-use ratio is forecast near 24%, down from 25% last year, primarily due to robust feed demand in Asia and steady ethanol production in the US.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money is net neutral on CBOT corn, indicating a lack of clear directional conviction among funds.

📊 Fundamentals & International Trade

Country	2024/25 Est. Production (Mt)	2024/25 Est. Stocks (Mt)
USA	382	50
China	288	210
Brazil	123	10
Argentina	56	3
EU	61	6
Ukraine	27	2

China remains the largest holder of corn stocks, while the US and Brazil dominate exportable surpluses. Ukraine’s export capacity is under threat from logistical and geopolitical challenges.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• US Midwest: Forecasts suggest above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall in June, which could stress pollinating corn if dry conditions persist.
• Europe: Eastern Europe continues to experience below-average rainfall, particularly in Romania and Ukraine, raising concerns about yield potential.
• South America: Brazil’s safrinha harvest is progressing well, with no major weather threats reported. Argentina’s outlook is mixed, with some areas recovering from earlier drought.
• China: Weather is mostly favourable, but vigilance is required as the summer progresses.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Producers: Consider forward sales for 2025/26 as prices remain historically average. Watch for weather-driven rallies to lock in premiums.
• 📌 Buyers: Maintain coverage for Q3–Q4 2025, but avoid aggressive purchases unless weather risks escalate.
• 📌 Traders: Monitor speculative flows and open interest for signs of directional shifts. Weather headlines could trigger short-term volatility.
• 📌 Risk: Watch for potential export restrictions or logistical disruptions in Ukraine and the Black Sea region.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Price Range	Currency
Euronext	Nov 25	198.5 – 200.0	EUR/t
CBOT	Dec 25	441 – 445	USC/bu
DCE	Jul 25	2,315 – 2,335	CNY/t

The short-term outlook is for continued sideways trading, with weather developments the key wildcard for price direction.