Corn Market Poised for Growth: India’s Acreage Expansion and Global Price Resilience

India’s corn sector is entering a dynamic growth phase, with acreage and production forecast to set fresh records in 2025–26. The past year witnessed Indian corn output surging by over 12%, with 2024–25 clocking an all-time high of 42.28 million tonnes, in large part due to a robust increase in cultivation area and demand momentum from the livestock feed and ethanol sectors. The ongoing kharif season’s acreage is already up 11% year-on-year, as favorable monsoon rains—particularly in Karnataka—encourage increased sowing activity. This rapid expansion, coupled with a higher minimum support price, makes corn increasingly attractive for Indian farmers who see steady institutional demand, especially from the massive poultry industry, where corn is key to feed cost stability.

The Indian government’s commitment to supporting the crop via an MSP hike—now set at USD 28.92 per quintal—underpins farmer confidence, while livestock industry-led scientific surveys promise unprecedented supply-side transparency for market stakeholders. This newfound clarity, real-time monitoring, and improved yield potential may counteract price volatility, yet global benchmarks remain sensitive to broader weather risks, speculative trading on US exchanges, and shifts in export competitiveness. With these developments, traders and feed buyers should closely monitor both Indian production signals and macro drivers shaping CBOT and Euronext pricing. The next few months will be pivotal as northern hemisphere weather risks, South American export dynamics, and Indian harvest estimates converge to set the tone for global corn markets.

📈 Prices: Latest Corn Market Overview

Origin	Location	Type	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Date
Ukraine	Odesa	Yellow feed grade	FCA	0.25	0.25	2025-06-27
France	Paris	Yellow	FOB	0.26	0.27	2025-06-20
Ukraine	Odesa	Conventional	FOB	0.21	0.21	2025-06-20
India	New Delhi	Starch (organic)	FOB	1.97	2.00	2025-06-20
Brazil	Dordrecht	Popcorn	FCA	0.74	0.74	2025-06-20
Argentina	Buenos Aires	Popcorn, 40/42	FOB	0.82	0.83	2025-06-20

• Sentiment: Stable-to-Slightly Soft (Europe), Cautiously Bullish (India/Asia)
• CBOT July 2025: Consult latest for live market-data; recent trend: sideways with weather-premium risk
• Euronext Nov 2025: Slight retracement; monitoring French harvest prospects

🌍 Supply & Demand: Crop Drivers & Regional Highlights

• India’s 2024–25 production up 12.26% YoY, forecast to rise further in 2025–26 with acreage up 11% for the kharif crop.
• Strong demand from the livestock and ethanol sector continues to underpin domestic usage.
• India raised corn MSP by 7.8%, incentivizing expanded sowing and supporting farm incomes.
• Poultry industry initiatives (satellite crop monitoring) to enhance transparency surrounding acreage/yield projections.
• Ukraine and South American exports competitive but servicing a cautious global demand environment as buyers gauge new crop potential and geopolitical logistics.

📊 Fundamentals: Production & Inventory Comparison

Country/Region	2024–25 Production (M tonnes)	2023–24	2024–25 Stocks (M tonnes)
India	42.28	37.66	9.3*
USA	389.7*	352.0*	51.0*
Brazil	121.6*	137.0*	8.3*
Ukraine	28.6*	29.5*	5.0*
EU	62.5*	63.6*	9.1*

*Estimates based on USDA/IGC data (June 2025)

📌 Market Drivers & External Factors

• USDA Reports: Predict solid US crop, but markets are closely watching weather in the Corn Belt for late-season volatility.
• Indian Policy: Increased MSP and government-led data transparency drive domestic production.
• Weather: Timely monsoon in India favoring acreage; US/Europe faced with mixed rainfall and localized dry spells threatening yields in some areas. South America may face weaker production in 2025 after last year’s robust output.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money has trimmed net length on US corn futures, hinting at reduced bullish sentiment, yet large open interest may catalyze sharp moves if weather deteriorates.
• Exports/Trade Flow: Ukraine remains a key low-cost supplier, but Black Sea logistics and geopolitical uncertainties loom.

🌦️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

• India: Monsoon onset robust, supporting kharif planting; risk of late-season dry spells remains moderate but manageable for now.
• US Midwest: Near-term weather mixed; scattered storms bring relief to western and southern belts, but central Illinois/Iowa could see heat stress. Weather premiums still in play on CBOT.
• Ukraine/EU: Recent improvement in rainfall could stabilize yields, though prolonged heat later in July could limit further output gains.
• Brazil/Argentina: Safrinha harvest progressing; estimates point to below-average yields relative to last year’s records.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/kg)

Exchange/Origin	Current	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
CBOT (Jul 2025, USD/bu)	Consult live data	+/- 0.5%	+/- 1%	Choppy, weather risk
Euronext (Nov 2025)	0.26	0.26	0.25–0.26	0.25–0.27 (volatile)
Odessa (UA, FCA)	0.25	0.25	0.24–0.25	0.24–0.25
New Delhi (IN, FOB)	1.97	1.97	1.97	1.95–1.98

🎯 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Feed buyers: Consider opportunistic procurement as Indian supply clarity improves and prices remain anchored by favorable acreage and weather prospects.
• Exporters: Monitor Black Sea logistics closely—export competitiveness remains strong but hinges on regional security and freight trends.
• Traders: Watch US/Europe for potential weather-driven rallies; maintain flexible hedges given high open interest and macro volatility.
• Poultry/feed sector: Leverage real-time Indian crop monitoring for demand planning; anticipate stable supply barring monsoon disruptions.

Sources: India Crop Survey, USDA, IGC, Trade Data, Weather Services.