Corn Market Rally: Supply Squeeze in Uttar Pradesh Drives Prices Higher Amid Firm Global Sentiment

The corn market is firmly in the spotlight as tight supplies continue to drive a bullish trend, particularly in India’s key producing state, Uttar Pradesh. Local traders and processors are contending with constrained market arrivals, keeping prices buoyant and sparking aggressive competition for available stocks. The ongoing demand from poultry feed industries, starch manufacturing, and increasingly from ethanol blending programs, underscores the robust consumption profile. Notably, in mandis such as Etawah and Bareilly, prices have surged to $28.20–$31.20 per quintal, reflecting not just local tightness but also broader structural supply issues.

Farmers are reluctant to release stocks, anticipating even more favorable prices with the festival season on the horizon. This sentiment is compounded by daily arrivals in some markets dropping by more than half, compared to typical seasonal flows, magnifying the risk of further price escalation if the arrival trend does not reverse. Internationally, firm price trends across major origins like France and Ukraine, coupled with stable to rising offers on global exchanges, reinforce the bullish undertone for corn. As processors and feed manufacturers lock in supply, the outlook is for continued firmness in prices, both domestically and on export markets, barring a significant turnaround in arrivals or a notable weather-related supply shock.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Change (WoW)	Market Sentiment
Corn (yellow)	France	Paris	FOB	0.25	0.00	Neutral/Firm
Corn (yellow, feed grade)	Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.26	0.00	Neutral/Firm
Corn (starch, organic)	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.94	0.00	Firm
Corn	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.00	Steady

• Uttar Pradesh mandi prices: $28.20–$31.20/quintal (firm, up due to tight arrivals)
• Western Europe & Black Sea export offers unchanged, sentiment firm on low supply

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Tight Supplies: Arrivals in major Indian mandis at 40–45 trucks/day vs. usual 80–100, causing local shortages.
• Farmers Withholding Stock: Many growers expect further gains, limiting market availability.
• Demand Drivers: Poultry, starch, and ethanol industries are maintaining consistent offtake. Stronger ethanol blending policy in India adds a new layer of demand.
• Processor Competition: Processors are bidding up for supplies, typical ahead of key festival demand season.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Production

Country	2023/24 Production (Mln t)	2023/24 Stocks (Mln t)	Status
USA	389	54	Stable; export pacing toward recent average
China	285	210	Stock drawdown, import needs rising
Brazil	129	11	Record exports, down YoY
Ukraine	30	3.5	Steady; logistics stabilized
EU	62	7	Production below 5-year avg

• Global stocks-to-use ratio remains below the 10-year average, supporting prices.
• Speculative positions at major exchanges (CBOT) indicate increased length, reflecting bullish sentiment.
• New-crop uncertainty (US, Brazil) could add risk premia.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• North India: Monsoon delays in parts of Uttar Pradesh could hinder sowing for late-season corn; heat stress risk rising.
• Midwest USA: Generally favorable weather, but hotspots show localized dryness; key pollination period ahead.
• Black Sea: Favorable conditions, though some pockets of excess moisture in Ukraine.
• Brazil: Dryness slowing safrinha crop late development, risk of yield loss in southern states.

Impact: If North Indian arrivals do not pick up post-monsoon, the local uptrend may strengthen further; global supply watch remains on late US and Brazil weather risks.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📊 Sellers: Consider gradual sales in the Indian market, especially if festival/industrial demand accelerates.
• 📦 Buyers/Processors: Secure forward coverage, particularly for Q4 needs, as risks to arrivals and further tightening persist.
• 🌍 Exporters (EU/Black Sea): Monitor Indian and SE Asian demand for opportunities on rising Asian premiums.
• ⚠️ Watch for: Updated USDA/WASDE supply revisions and Indian mandi arrivals for near-term direction.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• 🟢 Uttar Pradesh (Etawah/Bareilly): $28.50–$32.00/quintal (bullish bias if arrivals stay low)
• 🟡 EU FOB (Paris): EUR 0.25–0.27/kg (steady/firmer on export demand from MENA, Asia)
• 🟡 Ukraine FOB (Odesa): EUR 0.20–0.22/kg (steady/firmer on logistics reliability)

Check linked offers for more detailed pricing and negotiation:

For historical price movements and technicals, see attached chart: