Corn Futures Rise – Strong US Exports and Argentine Drought Drive Prices
Corn futures on the CBoT recorded gains on Thursday, driven by strong US export demand and ongoing drought conditions in Argentina. While prices in Chicago continued to rise, movements on Euronext were limited by a stronger euro and a weaker wheat market.
Market Report
The near-term corn futures closed higher at the CBoT, while the new crop contracts saw slight losses. The March contract gained 3.25 ct to 493.5 ct/bu (185 EUR/t). On Euronext, the March contract ended the trading day with a 0.50 EUR increase at 214.25 EUR/t.
Once again, the corn market benefited from strong US export demand and challenging weather conditions in Argentina, although heavy selling from farmers limited the gains.
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Market Influences
Brazil: Higher Corn Harvest Forecast
The Brazilian agricultural agency CONAB raised its total corn production forecast by 2.5 million tons to 122.0 million tons on Thursday. This represents an increase of 6.3 million tons compared to the previous season but remains below the USDA’s current estimate of 126 million tons.
The first corn harvest estimate was raised from 22.5 to 23.6 million tons, while the second crop forecast increased to 96.0 million tons. The delayed second-crop corn planting is not yet a concern for CONAB, but the agency warns that February’s planting pace will be crucial.
Argentina: Drought Worsens
In Argentina, the negative impact of heat and drought remains a central issue. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated 33% of fields as poor or very poor, up from 26% the previous week and just 17% last year. The share of fields suffering from water deficits surged from 27% to 41% in a week, significantly exceeding last year’s 26%.
EU: Slightly Lower Production Forecast
Strategie Grains slightly reduced its EU corn production forecast for 2025/26 to 59.9 million tons. The decline is attributed to reduced corn acreage, as more winter grains are being planted.
US Exports Remain at Record Levels
In the US, export demand remains very strong. For the week ending February 6, the USDA reported corn sales of 1.65 million tons for 2024/25, hitting the upper range of expected 800,000 to 1.7 million tons and marking a three-week high.
New crop sales reached 350,096 tons, aligning with expectations. Total corn export sales for the reporting week were the highest in over three months.
Market Prices
CBoT Corn Futures [US-Cent/bu]
| Contract | Previous | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % | Volume | Bid | Ask | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 490.25 | 493.00 | 495.50 | 492.50 | 495.25 | +3.25 | +0.66% | 9,714 | 495.25 | 495.50 | 386,239 |
| May 25 | 506.00 | 505.25 | 508.50 | 505.00 | 508.25 | +2.25 | +0.44% | 7,302 | 508.25 | 508.50 | 707,937 |
| Jul 25 | 509.00 | 508.50 | 511.25 | 508.00 | 511.25 | +2.25 | +0.44% | 3,801 | 511.00 | 511.25 | 402,892 |
| Sep 25 | 474.75 | 474.00 | 476.25 | 474.00 | 476.25 | +1.50 | +0.32% | 1,794 | 476.00 | 476.25 | 211,825 |
Euronext Corn Futures [EUR/t]
| Contract | Previous | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % | Volume | Bid | Ask | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 214.25 | – | – | – | 214.25 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 2 | 215.00 | 209.25 | 10,683 |
| Jun 25 | 222.00 | – | – | – | 222.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 2 | 222.00 | 223.75 | 23,411 |
| Aug 25 | 226.00 | – | – | – | 226.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 10 | 224.00 | 230.25 | 3,341 |
| Nov 25 | 219.00 | – | – | – | 219.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 2 | 215.00 | 220.00 | 2,978 |
Conclusion & Market Outlook
Corn prices remain in a strong environment, supported by US export demand and the drought in Argentina. Over the coming days, the market will closely monitor Brazil’s planting progress and the weekly US export data.
Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days:
- CBOT Corn (March Contract): Expected range 490–497 ct/bu.
- Euronext Corn (March Contract): Expected range 212–216 EUR/t.
Short-term prices will likely be influenced by weather reports from South America and US export data. While US exports remain strong, profit-taking could cause short-term price fluctuations.
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