Corn Market Report: Brazilian Output Drives Global Pressure Amid Robust Domestic Use

The global corn market is navigating a pivotal season as surging Brazilian output and robust domestic consumption reshape trade flows and price dynamics. In Brazil, near-ideal weather for the critical second (safrinha) corn crop continues to boost yield prospects, despite persistent rainfall slowing harvest progress in key states like Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná. With only 2% of the safrinha crop harvested by end-May, yet 80% of the first crop completed, the latest CONAB and AgRural data indicate record-high production for 2024/25—estimates now ranging from 126.8 to 134 million tons. This surge is expected to heighten competition with US corn exports, applying downward pressure on global feed grain prices just as the Northern Hemisphere enters its own crucial weather period.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s domestic demand for corn, especially due to expanding corn ethanol production, is pushing consumption forecasts up to 89 million tons—highlighting a fundamental shift toward more internal processing. International prices remain stable for now, but market participants are closely monitoring weather risks, North American acreage developments, and speculative positioning for signals on future volatility. With a new wave of rain forecast next week, Brazilian cropping conditions may remain favorable, sustaining the competitive edge of South American suppliers. This environment, alongside shifting regional inventories and new USDA forecasts, will prove decisive for traders and producers seeking to navigate a fluid, globally connected market.

📈 Prices: Key Market Levels

Product	Origin	Delivery Terms	Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Popcorn, 40/42	AR (Buenos Aires)	FOB	0.83	0.00	Stable
Corn, yellow	FR (Paris)	FOB	0.27	0.00	Stable
Corn, starch (Organic)	IN (New Delhi)	FOB	2.02	-0.02	Soft
Corn	UA (Odesa)	FOB	0.21	0.00	Stable
Corn, yellow feed grade	UA (Odesa)	FCA	0.25	0.00	Stable

Note: Prices as of June 5, 2025. Market sentiment reflects recent pricing and regional supply trends.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Brazil Production: CONAB raised 2024/25 forecast to 126.8 Mt; AgRural to 128.5 Mt; StoneX as high as 134 Mt. The bulk (almost 80%) is from the second (safrinha) crop.
• Domestic Use: Brazil’s corn consumption increases to 89 Mt (driven by ethanol expansion).
• US Competes: Record Brazilian exports may pressure US Gulf prices and shift global trade flows.
• Inventories: USDA projects higher beginning stocks; global ending stocks could rise if weather holds.
• Speculative Flows: Non-commercials hold a modest short, but are wary of potential US weather disruptions.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Consumption & Stocks

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Consumption (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)
Brazil	126.8-134.0	89.0	13.0
USA	390	315	60
EU	62	74	10
China	288	293	205

Sources: USDA, CONAB, AgRural, StoneX (Latest official and analyst forecasts)

⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Brazil: Continued rainfall supports crop development and prevents drought stress. However, slow harvest due to field access concerns in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná (only 2% threshed versus the norm by end-May).
• Forecast: New precipitation expected next week for main producing regions. Short-term cooler temps may delay harvest further but benefit grain fill and yields.
• USA/Midwest: Mixed start to crop—generally favorable moisture but watch for heat/drought pockets into June.
• Global Impact: Sustained good weather in Brazil increases downward price pressure on world markets; US weather is next focus for volatility.

🌐 Global Production & Trade Comparison

• Brazil: Near-record exports expected for 2024/25; share of export market rising, particularly to Asia and MENA.
• USA: Still dominant, but export share at risk if South America maintains yield momentum.
• EU & Ukraine: Stable output; international competitiveness remains, especially from Ukrainian feed-grade supplies into Mediterranean region.

🔎 Trading Outlook & Actionable Insights

• Sell rallies—ample Brazilian supply and strong forecasts are capping major upside.
• Monitor US weather—potential heat or acreage loss could still create volatility spikes.
• Watch ethanol sector in Brazil—continued government incentives may cushion internal prices.
• Buyers in Asia/North Africa should prepare for favorable import prices amid global surplus.
• Short-term, stable to soft price bias; long-term, US weather set to determine Q3 risk/reward.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Product	Price (USD/kg)	Forecast Trend
MATIF (Paris)	Yellow Corn	0.27	Stable/Soft
Odesa Export	Feed Corn	0.21–0.25	Stable
FOB Argentina	Popcorn	0.83	Stable

Outlook: Mild downside risk through the weekend, with Brazil harvest progress and US weather as key drivers.