The global corn market has entered a phase characterised by robust supply signals and subdued price movements amid predominantly favourable weather in key growing regions. Over the past week, corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ended lower, with July futures shedding 0.25 cents to close at 443.75 cents/bu, deepening the weekly loss to 15.75 cents (3.4%). Meanwhile, Euronext presented a mixed picture, as the active August contract slipped by 2.75 EUR to 193.75 EUR/t.
Good conditions in the US Midwest have expedited the completion of corn planting and set the stage for optimal early development, with forecasts indicating rain that should further encourage crop progress. A parallel story unfolds in Europe: France’s crop ratings have seen a mild retreat week-on-week but remain significantly stronger than the previous year. Meanwhile, completion of French plantings stands at an impressive 97%. In global supply terms, Brazil upgraded its crop forecast to 139.03 million tonnes, highlighting the sector’s resilience.
However, USDA’s more conservative projection of 130 million tonnes underlines continued market debate over final output. With export demand steady to stronger than last year and investment funds trimming their net short positions, the market confronts an environment where production optimism is offset by moderate demand growth. For traders and agribusinesses, careful readjustment to shifting fundamentals, alongside close monitoring of weather and geopolitical dynamics, is crucial for the near-term outlook.
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📈 Market Prices at a Glance
| Exchange | Contract | Last Price | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT | July 2025 | 444.50 US¢/bu | -15.75 US¢ (-3.4%) | Bearish |
| Euronext | August 2025 | 193.75 EUR/t | -2.75 EUR | Bearish |
| DCE (China) | July 2025 | 2339 CNY/t | +11 CNY (+0.47%) | Neutral/Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- 🇺🇸 USA: Nearly complete corn planting with optimal soil moisture. Better weather has pressured prices, as expectations for healthy yields grow.
- 🇫🇷 France: Crop condition slightly worsened to 85% rated good/excellent (down 2 pts), but still far above last year. Planting is 97% complete, with beneficial rains supporting crop establishment.
- 🇧🇷 Brazil: Safras & Mercado raised crop estimate to 139.03 Mio t (USDA: 130 Mio t). Second crop harvest lags—1% progress vs. 2.7% last year, but production outlook is strong.
- 🌎 Export Demand: USDA weekly report: 916,712 t booked for 24/25 (mid-range of forecasts, +13.2% y/y). New crop bookings at the lower end. Japan, Mexico, and Colombia top buyers. An additional 210,560 t private sale reported.
- 💼 Speculative Positioning: CFTC data shows managed money trimming net shorts, now 100,760 contracts net short, hinting at some risk adjustment.
📊 Corn Market Fundamentals
| Country | 2024/25 Production Forecast (Mio t) | 2023/24 (Previous Year) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 389.7 | 390.6 | Planting finished fast, rating strong |
| Brazil | 139.0 (Safras); 130.0 (USDA) | 131.6 | Saferinha upgraded, harvest is slow |
| EU | 64.9 | 61.2 | Improved ratings, above year-ago |
| China | 290.0 | 288.8 | Stable outlook, import demand steady |
☁️ Weather Impact & Outlook
- USA: Recent dry spell allowed rapid sowing; upcoming wetter weather supports vegetative stage, boosts yield prospects.
- France/Western Europe: Recent rainfall aids emergence and early growth after a minor dip in crop ratings.
- Brazil: Second crop harvest hampered by delays, but no major adverse events reported—production outlook robust.
- Ukraine/Eastern Europe: Moisture and conditions are generally favourable.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Stocks (Mio t) | Export/Import Role |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 55.7 | Top Exporter |
| Brazil | 12.5 | Leading Exporter |
| EU | 8.2 | Importer (self-sufficient in some regions) |
| China | 210.7 | Largest holder, main importer |
| Ukraine | 6.8 | Export-Dependent |
🛠️ Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Watch for follow-through on US and EU weather trends; rains support yields, limiting the risk of spike rallies.
- Export demand is solid but not explosive; big production could cap price upside in the near term.
- Managed money is still net short; short-covering could fuel bounces if adverse weather emerges.
- Monitor South American harvest and logistics delays, which could temporarily support basis values.
- Physical market buyers may seek short-term weakness for opportunistic purchases.
📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Exchange | Contract | Direction | Forecast Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT | July 2025 | Weak/Bearish | 440 – 447 US¢/bu |
| Euronext | August 2025 | Sideways/Bearish | 192 – 195 EUR/t |
| DCE | July 2025 | Steady | 2325 – 2350 CNY/t |