🌽 Corn Prices Decline Amid WASDE Revisions & South American Crop Adjustments 📉
The corn prices on CBoT and Euronext recorded declines after the WASDE report projected higher global corn production. While Brazil’s corn exports were reduced, domestic demand for ethanol production remains strong. Argentina’s harvest forecast was lowered again, creating uncertainty about global supply. Will the market remain under pressure, or are there signs of stabilization? Find all the details in our latest report!
Corn prices declined on both CBoT and Euronext, with the most traded May contract at CBoT falling by 4.25 ct to 461.00 ct/bu (-0.91%) and the June contract on Euronext losing 1.00 EUR to 212.00 EUR/t. The USDA’s WASDE report revised global corn production higher, while Brazil’s corn exports were downgraded due to increased domestic ethanol production. Meanwhile, Argentina’s production outlook continues to worsen, adding uncertainty to global supply. Will global demand recover, or will oversupply keep prices under pressure? Get the latest insights in today’s market update! 🚀📊
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📊 Market Overview
🔹 CBoT: The most traded May contract fell 4.25 ct to 461.00 ct/bu, as global supply projections increased.
🔹 Euronext: The benchmark June contract declined 1.00 EUR to 212.00 EUR/t, as the stronger euro limited gains.
🌍 Key Market Drivers
📌 1. WASDE Report: Global Corn Production Revised Upward
- The global corn production forecast for 2024/25 increased by 1.7 million tons, bringing the total to 1,214.17 million tons.
- Key Adjustments:
- India: Larger planting areas and excellent monsoon rainfall boosted estimates.
- Russia: Updated harvest data showed improved yields.
- Ukraine: Recent harvest reports indicate higher-than-expected output.
- Stock Adjustments:
- Despite higher production, global ending stocks dropped by 1.37 million tons to 288.94 million tons.
- China and Argentina saw stock declines, offset slightly by gains in Russia and India.
📌 2. Brazil’s Corn Exports Revised Down
- WASDE cut Brazil’s corn export forecast by 2 million tons to 44 million tons, as more corn is redirected for domestic biofuel production.
- China’s import expectations were lowered to 8 million tons (-2 million tons).
- Mexico’s import demand remains steady at 24.5 million tons.
📌 3. South American Crop Conditions Remain Mixed
- Argentina:
- Recent heavy rainfall in Buenos Aires & Córdoba improved soil moisture, boosting yield potential.
- However, drier conditions in the north continue to stress crops.
- Brazil:
- 92% of the second (Safrinha) corn crop is planted, up 12 percentage points from last week.
- However, the optimal planting window has now closed, leaving 20% of the crop planted outside ideal conditions.
- Southern Brazil remains dry, creating concerns for late-season development.
📌 4. FAO Global Grain Outlook
- FAO expects total global grain production (including corn) to reach 2.842 billion tons in 2024.
- Global grain consumption is projected to rise to 2.867 billion tons, reducing stock levels by 1.9% to 869.3 million tons.
- Stock-to-use ratio (global reserves vs. consumption) is projected at 29.9%, suggesting a marginally tightening supply.
📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 456.50 | 455.00 | 455.00 | 455.00 | 455.00 | -1.50 | -0.33% |
| May 25 | 470.25 | 469.25 | 472.00 | 467.25 | 467.50 | -2.75 | -0.58% |
| Jul 25 | 477.00 | 476.00 | 478.25 | 473.50 | 473.50 | -3.50 | -0.73% |
| Sep 25 | 449.75 | 449.50 | 450.75 | 447.75 | 448.00 | -1.75 | -0.39% |
| Dec 25 | 454.50 | 453.00 | 455.00 | 452.50 | 452.50 | -2.00 | -0.44% |
📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 212.00 | – | – | – | 212.00 | -1.00 | -0.47% |
| Aug 25 | 217.25 | – | – | – | 217.25 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Nov 25 | 214.50 | – | – | – | 214.50 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Market | Expected Trend | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| CBoT Corn | 🔽 Bearish | Higher global production forecast |
| Euronext Corn | 🔽 Slight Downward Pressure | Stronger euro, weak U.S. trend |
| Argentina & Brazil | 🔼 Volatile | Weather-driven risks |
🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)
📍 Current Conditions: Heavy rainfall boosted yield potential.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 More rain expected in Buenos Aires & Córdoba, improving late-stage crops.
- 🌡 Drier conditions in the north could lower overall yields.
🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)
📍 Current Conditions: 92% of the Safrinha corn crop is planted.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Rain slowing down late-season planting but supporting early growth.
- 🌤 Southern Brazil remains dry, potentially reducing yields.
📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks
📌 Stock Levels (Since 2021)
| Season | Global Stocks (Mio. t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 Mio. t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 Mio. t |
| 2024/25 | 288.94 | -6.9 Mio. t |
📉 Since January 2025, global corn stocks have dropped by 22.56 million tons!
🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison
| Country | 2022/23 (Mio. t) | 2023/24 (Mio. t) | 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 382 | 385 | 390 | +1.3% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 51 | 49 | 44.5 | -9.2% |
📊 Summary: Brazil continues steady growth, while Argentina faces greater-than-expected yield reductions.
📢 Stay tuned for further market insights! 🚀