🌽 Corn Market Sees Mixed Trends – CBoT Gains While Euronext Declines 📉📈
The corn market showed mixed trends as CBoT futures gained while Euronext contracts declined. The most traded June contract in Euronext dropped to its lowest level since December, while U.S. export sales and South American weather remain key market factors. Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn exports fell in February, reflecting seasonal trends. Will the market stabilize, or is further downside expected? Get the latest insights in today’s market update! 🚀📊
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📊 Market Overview
🔹 CBoT: The most traded May contract gained 5.25 ct to 469.25 ct/bu, driven by export optimism.
🔹 Euronext: The benchmark June contract fell 1.25 EUR to 211.00 EUR/t, marking its lowest level since December.
🌍 Key Market Drivers
📌 1. U.S. Export Data Shows Strong YoY Growth
- Total U.S. corn export sales for 2024/25 stand at 49.567 million tons, marking a 26% increase compared to last year.
- USDA Weekly Report (Feb 27):
- 909,100 tons booked for 2024/25, in line with market expectations (700,000 – 1 million tons).
- 📈 15% higher than last week but 📉 32% below the four-week average.
📌 2. Brazil’s Corn Exports Declining Seasonally
- Brazil’s corn exports fell in February:
- 1.432 million tons exported, compared to 1.713 million tons in February 2024.
- Seasonal trend: Corn exports in Brazil typically slow down between February and June, while soybeans dominate shipments.
📌 3. Improved Weather Conditions in Argentina
- Heavy rainfall in central Argentina (Buenos Aires & Córdoba) improved soil moisture, benefiting corn and soybean crops.
- 📌 Market impact: While improved conditions support yields, excessive rain poses a risk of localized flooding, which could impact final production estimates.
📌 4. Stronger Euro Weighs on Euronext Corn Prices
- The euro reached a four-month high against the U.S. dollar, making European grain exports less competitive, weighing on Euronext corn prices.
📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 449.50 | 450.25 | 456.75 | 448.00 | 455.25 | +5.75 | +1.28% |
| May 25 | 469.25 | 469.50 | 472.75 | 466.50 | 467.50 | -1.75 | -0.37% |
| Jul 25 | 475.75 | 475.75 | 479.25 | 472.75 | 473.75 | -2.00 | -0.42% |
| Sep 25 | 450.25 | 450.50 | 453.50 | 447.50 | 448.25 | -2.00 | -0.44% |
| Dec 25 | 454.25 | 454.25 | 457.50 | 451.50 | 452.50 | -1.75 | -0.39% |
📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 211.00 | – | – | – | 211.00 | -1.25 | -0.59% |
| Aug 25 | 217.00 | – | – | – | 217.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Nov 25 | 213.00 | – | – | – | 213.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Market | Expected Trend | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| CBoT Corn | 🔼 Mild Recovery | Export demand, technical buying |
| Euronext Corn | 🔽 Slight Downward Pressure | Stronger euro limiting price recovery |
| Argentina & Brazil | 🔼 Weather-Driven Volatility | Rain in Argentina, potential delays in Brazil |
🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)
📍 Current Conditions: Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 More rain expected, supporting crop development.
- 🌡 Temperatures remain warm, but moisture levels are better than last month.
🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)
📍 Current Conditions: Soybean harvest is ahead of last year, benefiting corn planting.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Rain could slow remaining corn planting but support early crop growth.
- 🌤 Drier conditions in southern Brazil could aid planting progress.
📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks
📌 Stock Levels (Since 2021)
| Season | Global Stocks (Mio. t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 Mio. t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 Mio. t |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 Mio. t |
📉 Since January 2025, global corn stocks have dropped by 25.5 million tons!
🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison
| Country | 2022/23 (Mio. t) | 2023/24 (Mio. t) | 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 382 | 385 | 390 | +1.3% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 51 | 49 | 46 | -6.1% |
📊 Summary: Brazil is continuing steady growth, while Argentina faces drought-related losses.
📌 Summary & Market Outlook
📊 Corn markets remain volatile, with U.S. futures rising while European prices face pressure.
🌎 South American weather continues to improve, easing previous supply concerns.
📉 U.S. exports are increasing, but competition from Brazil remains a key factor.
🔍 Corn futures likely to consolidate in the short term, with export data and South American crop developments driving sentiment.
📢 Stay updated for further market insights! 🚀