Corn Market Snapshot: Mixed Momentum Amid Steady Fundamentals

The global corn market continues to hold steady in mid-June 2025, demonstrating resilience despite the interplay of regional weather patterns, robust export demand, and substantial end-of-season inventories. Euronext and CBOT corn futures fluctuate within relatively narrow ranges, hinting at a balanced tug-of-war between speculative optimism and cautious fundamentals. China’s Dalian market, meanwhile, points toward seasonal softness as domestic supplies improve. Across the Atlantic, European contracts hover at moderate levels, while the US market maintains a slight upward bias, buoyed by supportive export sales and stable planting expectations.

The physical market remains differentiated by origin, with French corn holding a premium to Ukrainian offers, reflecting ongoing logistical risks and variances in crop quality. All eyes are now on weather developments across the US Corn Belt and Black Sea region, as market participants watch for any signals that might disrupt the supply/demand equilibrium or spark price volatility. The outlook for the next several days suggests price consolidation, but there are definite catalysts—ranging from USDA acreage revisions to near-term rainfall anomalies—that may soon shift this calm.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext Paris	Nov 25	197.00	0.00%	EUR/t	Steady
CBOT	Dec 25	440.00	+0.28%	US-Cent/bu	Mildly Bullish
Dalian (DCE)	Sep 25	2393.00	-0.17%	CNY/t	Softening

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US corn planting is nearly complete; crop emergence is in line with recent averages.
• EU production prospects remain guarded, but decent rainfall supports the French and German crop outlooks.
• Ukraine continues strong export flows, but infrastructure and geopolitical risks persist.
• China’s local markets show softer prices as stockpiles are drawn down more slowly with plentiful supplies.
• Global importers (notably Egypt, South Korea) are not showing aggressive buying behavior, reflecting adequate inventories and wait-and-see attitudes.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA’s June WASDE placed global corn ending stocks at 313.2 Mt (virtually unchanged month-on-month).
• Speculative longs on CBOT mildly increased, hinting at cautious optimism ahead of US acreage updates.
• Crop acreage in the US likely near 89.0 million acres, with some concern over replanting in flooded locales.
• EU’s MARS report indicates yield potential around 7.2 t/ha for France, slightly above the 5-year average.
• Ukraine’s 2025 harvest is expected above 28 Mt, but logistics remain a wild card for export consistency.

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)
USA	383.5	54.8
China	290.8	209.5
Brazil	120.1	9.5
EU	62.1	15.0
Ukraine	28.4	2.7

⛅️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• US Corn Belt: Rainfall has improved in most areas, supporting crop stands, but isolated storms have caused replanting in the eastern belt (notably Illinois and Indiana). Forecast through next 3 days: Mild temperatures, scattered storms, generally favorable for crop development.
• Europe: France and Germany benefit from timely precipitation, while Southeast Europe faces mild drought stresses. Forecast: Stable weather in France, some dryness risk returning in Hungary and Romania.
• Ukraine: Moderate, stable conditions, favorable for fieldwork and crop development in main growing zones.
• China (Northeast): Cooler weather, moderate showers—likely to ease planting stress and support early corn stands.

🏭 Physical Market Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type/Grade	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous	Update Date
Corn	France	Paris	yellow	FOB	0.27	0.27	2025-06-12
Corn	Ukraine	Odesa		FOB	0.21	0.21	2025-06-12
Corn (feed, 98%)	Ukraine	Odesa	feed, 98%	FCA	0.25	0.25	2025-06-12
Corn (starch, organic)	India	New Delhi	organic, starch	FOB	2.00	2.02	2025-06-12

📆 Trading Outlook & Actionable Insights

• Buyers: Consider locking in nearby cover if physical needs are urgent, especially EU and US origins as weather uncertainty lingers.
• Sellers: Ukrainian sellers remain price-competitive; advantageous for market share, but logistics should be closely monitored.
• Speculation: Bulls can stay in with tight stops, leveraging possible US weather rallies; bears watch for downside if US crop remains on track.
• Flat price likely to continue range-trading until next USDA acreage/supply shock or Black Sea logistics event emerges.
• Monitor China’s pace of stock drawdowns, as additional import demand could surface into Q3.

📅 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Front Month	Forecast Range	Market Direction
Euronext Paris	Nov 25	195–200 EUR/t	Steady to Slightly Firmer
CBOT	Dec 25	438–443 US¢/bu	Stable, weather-driven risk
Dalian	Sep 25	2385–2405 CNY/t	Soft to sideways