📌 Corn Prices Rise in Chicago – Strong Exports Fuel Rally Amid Global Supply Revisions
U.S. corn futures posted gains for a second straight session, while the Euronext market remained flat. Behind the move: robust export demand, shifting global forecasts, and regional weather concerns.
While Chicago prices gained momentum, European futures remained unchanged. A strong USDA export report supported the rally, but currency effects and South American risks are shifting the global picture.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 456.50 | +7.00 |
➡ The front-month contract rose for a second consecutive day, driven by strong export figures.
🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 216.75 | 0.00 |
| Aug 25 | 222.00 | 0.00 |
| Nov 25 | 216.75 | ±0.00 |
➡ While May remained unchanged, later contracts showed mixed movement.
🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 🚢 USDA Weekly Export Sales (2024/25):
- Net sales: 1.497 million tons
- Top buyers: 🇯🇵 Japan (487,700t), 🇰🇷 South Korea (397,200t), 🇲🇽 Mexico (303,700t), 🇹🇼 Taiwan (122,800t)
- 55% higher than last week, 45% above the 4-week average
- 📊 IGC Forecast Update:
- 2025/26 global production: 1.269 billion tons (↑ from 1.217)
- Global consumption: 1.263 billion tons (↑ from 1.238)
- Ending stocks: 280 million tons (↑ from 274)
- 2024/25 production estimate: revised up by 1 Mt
- 2024/25 ending stocks: revised down by 1 Mt to 274 million tons
- 🌡 Argentina Yield Risk:
- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange warns of 40% lower yields in northwest Argentina and northern Córdoba
- Severe heat and drought conditions reported
- Despite area adjustment to 7.1 million ha (−7.6%), production forecast remains at 49 Mt
- 💱 Stronger USD: Gains in Chicago were limited by a firmer U.S. dollar, which may pressure export competitiveness.
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
| Region | Trend | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. Corn Belt | Mild, scattered rain | Good early-season fieldwork |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Dry, some rain expected | Planting at risk without relief |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | Hot & dry (Córdoba) | Yield damage ongoing |
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks
| Region | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | YoY Change | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 389.7 | +6.2 Mt | 55.2 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 288.8 | ±0.0 | 204.2 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 121.0 | −4.5 Mt | 11.4 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 63.0 | +1.8 Mt | 16.1 |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | 27.5 | −2.3 Mt | 3.5 |
| 🌍 Global Total | 1,222.4 | +5.8 Mt | 314.6 |
➡ Stocks remain high globally, but regional risks and tight logistics may affect Q2 availability.
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 354.2 | 383.5 | 389.7 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 277.0 | 288.8 | 288.8 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | 125.5 | 121.0 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 52.3 | 61.2 | 63.0 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 52.0 | 56.0 | 49.0 |
➡ The U.S. is driving global growth. Brazil and Argentina are facing setbacks tied to weather and acreage shifts.
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 📈 Chicago Outlook: Recent momentum suggests bullish potential short-term, but stronger USD may cap gains.
- ⚖️ Euronext Trend: Prices remain stable but lack fresh momentum – watch for wheat market influence.
🧭 Suggestion: Favor short-term opportunities on old crop U.S. contracts. Monitor South American weather and USD developments closely.
🔮 Conclusion & Outlook
The corn market is currently supported by exports and positive revisions, but global weather risks and currency shifts may define the next moves.
📆 3-Day Price Forecast
- CBOT: Slightly firmer
- Euronext: Sideways trend likely