Corn Market Squeeze: Weather Woes, Quality Issues, and Tight Supplies Drive Bullish Outlook

The global corn market faces strong upward pressure amid inconsistent arrivals, persistently adverse weather, and a noticeable decline in quality for much of the current crop. In key Indian growing regions such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh, the delayed monsoon, combined with logistical bottlenecks, has severely limited the flow of quality corn into local and export channels. Not only have heavy rains disrupted both harvest and transportation, but damaged and high-moisture grain is proving difficult to store or sell, further constraining usable inventories.

While an expanded acreage initially raised output hopes, rain-related losses have caused overall season arrivals to drop well below expectations, leading many market players to predict a significant price rally if conditions persist. Flour millers and starch processors are actively competing for the dwindling supply of premium lots, with local offers in India varying widely by quality and region. On the international front, European and Black Sea prices remain stable but could react swiftly if the Asian tightness spills into global trade. With storage at capacity in several regions and more rain forecast, the supply scene looks set for continued tension and upward pricing momentum—especially for high-quality corn. Buyers with outstanding needs may face difficult procurement choices in the weeks ahead.

📈 Corn Market Prices Overview

Origin	Location	Type	Quality/Purity	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Update Date	Sentiment
France	Paris	Yellow	–	0.24	0.25	-4%	2025-07-31	Neutral/Weak
India	New Delhi	Starch (organic)	–	1.92	1.93	-0.5%	2025-07-31	Bullish (tight stocks)
Ukraine	Odesa	–	–	0.20	0.20	0%	2025-07-31	Stable
Ukraine	Odesa	Yellow Feed (14.5% moisture, 98%)	98%	0.26	0.25	+4%	2025-07-25	Firming

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• India: Corn arrivals in Uttar Pradesh have started, but volumes are notably low. Heavy rainfall in Bihar, Odisha, and neighboring states is impeding harvest and transportation workflows. 13.8–13.9 million MT are expected, well below prior forecasts.
• Quality: Up to 45% of Bihar’s arrivals are of lower grade; similar issues are seen across Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
• Regional Prices:
  • Haryana: $258–$279/quintal (quality-dependent)
  • Madhya Pradesh: $246–$271/quintal (better lots), $229 for rejected quality
  • Bihar: $246–$258/quintal, but limited buying as buyers await quality improvement and logistical ease
• Global: Ukraine and France offer relatively steady pricing, but any escalation in Asian procurement could lift international offers.

📊 Key Market Fundamentals

• Production: Higher planted acreage in India offset by rain damage and high-moisture losses, making much of the harvest unsuitable for storage or trade.
• Stock Situation: Declining stocks as small and medium buyers have run down inventories; storage is limited in Western and Central India.
• USDA/Global Inventories: USDA’s July WASDE indicates global stocks are adequate but susceptible to reductions if Asian importers step up purchases.
• Speculative Positioning: Short-term speculative interest is building on expected supply tightness and weather risk premiums.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India: IMD forecasts more persistent monsoon rain over the eastern corn belt, particularly Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh, over the next 3–5 days. This will likely delay harvesting, worsening quality, and stalling shipments.
• Ukraine: Mild and favorable, supporting steady yields. No major adverse events forecast through next week.
• US Midwest: Mild to slightly below-normal temperatures and recent localized rainfall could marginally support late pollination; no stress forecast in the short term.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (Mln MT)	Stocks (Mln MT)	Notes
USA	382	48	Stable production, steady stock rise
China	288	206	Large but mostly captive stocks
Brazil	118	10	Harvest weather favorable so far
India	32	2.5	Short crop, stocks below normal
Ukraine	28	3.8	Steady, weather supportive
EU	65	3	No material disruption forecast

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish medium-term sentiment for Indian market; expect price spikes if rains continue and arrival quality does not improve.
• Millers and starch processors: Secure premium quality cargoes early; focus on local procurement rather than import replacement in India.
• Export traders: Watch for potential Indian buying on global markets if domestic stocks dwindle further.
• Buyers in affected regions: Delay bulk purchases if possible, but monitor spot markets for high-quality arrivals.
• International traders: Keep a close eye on Indian and Southeast Asian rainfall, as supply disruptions may ripple into Asian import demand and push up global prices.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Market	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
CBOT (US, Sep 2025)	EUR 0.17/kg	EUR 0.17–0.18/kg	Steady to firm
Paris Euronext (Nov 2025)	EUR 0.24/kg	EUR 0.24–0.25/kg	Steady/Firm
Bihar (IN, spot, top grade)	$258/quintal	$260–$270/quintal	Firm to higher (quality premium)
Ukraine FOB Black Sea	EUR 0.20/kg	EUR 0.20–0.21/kg	Steady