Corn arrivals have increased recently; however, the availability of premium-quality produce remains limited. Due to heavy rains affecting crop quality, overall arrivals are still 40% lower compared to last year. Average-quality maize is trading at $25.47 per quintal, while high-quality maize is reaching prices of up to $32.26 per quintal. In contrast, lower-quality maize is being sold in the range of $24.97–$25.47 per quintal, reflecting the continued pressure on quality supply despite better arrivals.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
Popcorn	Brazil	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	0.75	0.75	0.0	Steady
Corn (yellow, 14.5% m.c.)	Ukraine	Odesa, UA	FCA	0.27	0.27	0.0	Stable
Popcorn (expansion 40/42)	Argentina	Buenos Aires, AR	FOB	0.82	0.82	0.0	Unchanged
Corn (yellow)	France	Paris, FR	FOB	0.22	0.24	-8.3	Soft
Corn (starch, organic)	India	New Delhi, IN	FOB	1.95	1.97	-1.0	Soft
Corn	Ukraine	Odesa, UA	FOB	0.20	0.20	0.0	Flat

• High-quality maize: $32.26/quintal
• Average-quality maize: $25.47/quintal
• Lower-quality maize: $24.97–$25.47/quintal

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Arrivals have improved but are still 40% lower than last year due to rainfall and reduced crop quality.
• Feed and industrial buyers adjusting sourcing to blend with lower grades.
• EU and Asia remain heavily dependent on Ukrainian corn; US Gulf exports steady but face stiffer competition.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Drivers

• USDA Reports: Latest WASDE highlights lower US ending stocks, but record Brazil/Argentina output offsets global fears.
• Crop Quality: Unusual rains in several regions left more feed-grade maize, reducing food/industrial availability.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds remain net short, but shorts covering amid weather volatility.
• Global Inventories: China rebuilding stocks, but EU reserves are below average after last season’s drought.
• Logistics: Black Sea port traffic normalized but could be disrupted by geopolitical changes.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Mostly favorable short-term outlook, but scattered storms may delay late harvesting.
• Black Sea Region (Ukraine, Russia): Recent rains improved lingering dry areas; harvest expected near 5-year average.
• EU (France, Romania, Hungary): Late-summer showers helped kernel fill but elevated disease risk in some areas.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)
USA	389	34
Brazil	122	16
Argentina	56	2.5
Ukraine	28	2
EU	65	4
China	288	208

📆 Trading Outlook & Advice

• Producers: Target sales of high-quality product; premiums are likely to persist into Q4.
• Buyers: Lock in supply of premium lots early; blend feed-grade to optimize costs.
• Traders: Watch for weather-driven surges; volatility will open short-term arbitrage opportunities.
• Market Moving Events: Monitor US harvest pace and China/EU import demand.
• Risk: Geopolitical shocks (e.g. Black Sea) or abrupt policy shifts could upend logistics and prices.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location / Exchange	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast
Odesa (UA, FCA)	0.27	0.26–0.28 (Stable, mild downside risk)
Paris (FR, FOB)	0.22	0.21–0.23 (Downward pressure, weatherwatch)
Dordrecht (NL, FCA)	0.75	0.74–0.76 (Steady)