Corn arrivals have increased recently; however, the availability of premium-quality produce remains limited. Due to heavy rains affecting crop quality, overall arrivals are still 40% lower compared to last year. Average-quality maize is trading at $25.47 per quintal, while high-quality maize is reaching prices of up to $32.26 per quintal. In contrast, lower-quality maize is being sold in the range of $24.97–$25.47 per quintal, reflecting the continued pressure on quality supply despite better arrivals.
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Popcorn | Brazil | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.0 | Steady |
| Corn (yellow, 14.5% m.c.) | Ukraine | Odesa, UA | FCA | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.0 | Stable |
| Popcorn (expansion 40/42) | Argentina | Buenos Aires, AR | FOB | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.0 | Unchanged |
| Corn (yellow) | France | Paris, FR | FOB | 0.22 | 0.24 | -8.3 | Soft |
| Corn (starch, organic) | India | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 1.95 | 1.97 | -1.0 | Soft |
| Corn | Ukraine | Odesa, UA | FOB | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.0 | Flat |
- High-quality maize: $32.26/quintal
- Average-quality maize: $25.47/quintal
- Lower-quality maize: $24.97–$25.47/quintal
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals have improved but are still 40% lower than last year due to rainfall and reduced crop quality.
- Feed and industrial buyers adjusting sourcing to blend with lower grades.
- EU and Asia remain heavily dependent on Ukrainian corn; US Gulf exports steady but face stiffer competition.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Drivers
- USDA Reports: Latest WASDE highlights lower US ending stocks, but record Brazil/Argentina output offsets global fears.
- Crop Quality: Unusual rains in several regions left more feed-grade maize, reducing food/industrial availability.
- Speculative Positioning: Funds remain net short, but shorts covering amid weather volatility.
- Global Inventories: China rebuilding stocks, but EU reserves are below average after last season’s drought.
- Logistics: Black Sea port traffic normalized but could be disrupted by geopolitical changes.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- US Midwest: Mostly favorable short-term outlook, but scattered storms may delay late harvesting.
- Black Sea Region (Ukraine, Russia): Recent rains improved lingering dry areas; harvest expected near 5-year average.
- EU (France, Romania, Hungary): Late-summer showers helped kernel fill but elevated disease risk in some areas.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production (Mt) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 389 | 34 |
| Brazil | 122 | 16 |
| Argentina | 56 | 2.5 |
| Ukraine | 28 | 2 |
| EU | 65 | 4 |
| China | 288 | 208 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Advice
- Producers: Target sales of high-quality product; premiums are likely to persist into Q4.
- Buyers: Lock in supply of premium lots early; blend feed-grade to optimize costs.
- Traders: Watch for weather-driven surges; volatility will open short-term arbitrage opportunities.
- Market Moving Events: Monitor US harvest pace and China/EU import demand.
- Risk: Geopolitical shocks (e.g. Black Sea) or abrupt policy shifts could upend logistics and prices.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location / Exchange | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Odesa (UA, FCA) | 0.27 | 0.26–0.28 (Stable, mild downside risk) |
| Paris (FR, FOB) | 0.22 | 0.21–0.23 (Downward pressure, weatherwatch) |
| Dordrecht (NL, FCA) | 0.75 | 0.74–0.76 (Steady) |