Corn Market Stabilises Ahead of WASDE – Trade Optimism and Export Sales Support Rebound

➡ Corn Market Stabilises Ahead of WASDE – Trade Optimism and Export Sales Support Rebound

Corn futures closed slightly higher on Friday, supported by short covering ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report and progress in U.S.–China trade talks. Despite the bounce, weekly losses remained significant.

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The U.S. corn market saw cautious buying ahead of the WASDE report and a joint U.S.–China statement expected today. Futures recovered after four days of losses but remain technically weak. Euronext followed with a mild rebound but also logged a notable weekly decline.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change	Weekly Change
Jul 2025	449.75	+2.25	−19.25 ct (−4.1%)
Sep 2025	429.25	+2.00	–
Dec 2025	442.00	+2.00	–

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change	Weekly Change
Jun 2025	192.50	+0.75	−6.25 EUR (−3.1%)
Aug 2025	195.50	0.00	–
Nov 2025	197.50	0.00	–

➡ Weekly losses persist despite mild Friday recovery.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 📈 Pre-WASDE Positioning:
  • USDA to release the first full 2025/26 supply and demand outlook today
  • Analysts expect:
    • U.S. old crop ending stocks: 1.443 Bbu (−22 Mb vs. April)
    • U.S. new crop stocks: 2.02 Bbu
    • World ending stocks:
      • Old crop: 287.65 Mt
      • New crop: 297.36 Mt
• 🧾 Export Activity:
  • USDA confirmed 288,000 t of corn sold to Mexico (Fri):
    • 95,100 t for 2024/25
    • 192,900 t for 2025/26
• 🇺🇸 Fund Sentiment Turns Bearish (CFTC):
  • Managed money cut net long by 57,436 contracts (as of May 6)
  • New net long: 13,893 contracts – lowest since Nov 2024
  • Selling pressure after the report suggests funds are now net short
• 🌍 South America Supply Outlook:
  • 🇧🇷 Brazil: Analysts expect ↑1 Mt → 126.96 Mt
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina: Slight downgrade (−0.25 Mt) → 49.75 Mt
• 🌏 Trade Talks Signal Improvement:
  • U.S.–China negotiations resumed in Switzerland
  • Joint statement expected today
  • Trade optimism helped trigger short covering

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Market Impact
🇺🇸 Midwest	Continued dry spell	Accelerated planting → bearish short term
🇧🇷 Brazil	Mild harvest weather	Seasonal exports to increase
🇨🇳 China	Trade optimism	May improve sentiment post-statement

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🌍 Corn Market Snapshot (Pre-WASDE)

Indicator	Value	Trend
USDA Old Crop Ending Stocks	1.443 Bbu (expected)	Slightly bullish
USDA New Crop Ending Stocks	2.02 Bbu (expected)	Bearish
World Ending Stocks (2025/26)	297.36 Mt	Neutral to bearish
CFTC Net Long (May 6)	13,893 contracts	Weakest since Nov
Mexico Purchase (May 10)	288,000 t	Supportive

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• ⚖️ Mixed fundamentals: Strong exports vs. weak fund sentiment
• 🧭 WASDE will set the tone for the next 1–2 weeks
• 🔻 Risk of short-term selling if the USDA raises the new crop supply too aggressively

Strategy:

• Avoid fresh long positions before WASDE details
• Use rebounds to hedge old crop exposure
• Watch the reaction to–U.S.-China statement for direction

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (May 13–15)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	🔁 Neutral-to-weak	Volatility expected post-WASDE
Euronext	🔽 Bearish bias	Trend-following pressure from CBOT
Dalian	🔁 Stable	Domestic China demand steady, no shifts yet

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