Corn Market Surges Amid Zambia’s Record Harvest and Global Shifts

The global corn market is experiencing a dynamic shift as Zambia, a key African producer, reports a record maize harvest following last year’s devastating drought. The country’s production has soared from a 16-year low of 1.5 million tonnes to an estimated 3.66 million tonnes, marking a pivotal recovery and offering relief to both local consumers and the broader regional market. This turnaround comes as improved rainfall has helped Zambia rebound from El Niño-induced crop failures, with the government now optimistic about inflation returning to target levels by year-end. However, the legacy of last year’s drought lingers in the power sector, and the risk of price volatility remains if export regulations are not swiftly adjusted. Globally, corn prices show stability with minor fluctuations, while Ukraine and France maintain competitive FOB offers. As the new crop season unfolds, attention is focused on weather developments in major growing regions and the impact of speculative activity in futures markets. For market participants, the combination of increased African supply, steady Black Sea exports, and evolving weather patterns sets the stage for a potentially volatile but opportunity-rich trading environment.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Popcorn (expansion, 40/42)	Argentina	Buenos Aires	FOB	0.83	0.00	Neutral
Corn (yellow)	France	Paris	FOB	0.27	0.00	Stable
Corn (starch, organic)	India	New Delhi	FOB	2.04	0.00	Stable
Corn	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.22	0.00	Bearish
Corn (yellow feed grade, 98%)	Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.25	-0.01	Softening

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Zambia: 2025 maize output at 3.66m tonnes, more than double last year’s drought-hit crop.
• Ukraine & France: FOB offers remain competitive, supporting steady export flows to MENA and Asia.
• Consumption: Price-sensitive demand in Africa and Asia; easing inflation in Zambia may curb import needs.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains net long on CBOT corn, though positions are below 2023 highs.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Global corn stocks projected to rise in 2025, led by US and African recoveries.
• Crop Acreage: US corn acreage steady; Brazil and Argentina anticipate strong second-crop harvests.
• Inventories: Chinese stocks remain ample; EU imports stable amid local production recovery.
• Speculators: Funds cautious amid weather volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Mixed rainfall; some areas remain dry, raising concerns for pollination phase.
• Black Sea: Favorable conditions in Ukraine and Russia support yield outlook.
• Southern Africa: Good rainfall boosts Zambia’s crop; South Africa sees mixed conditions, with localized drought risk persisting.
• South America: Brazil’s safrinha corn faces near-average weather; Argentina’s late harvest benefits from mild temperatures.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Output (mt)	2023/24 Output (mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mt)
USA	387	383	56
China	282	280	207
Brazil	124	116	12
Argentina	56	41	3.5
Ukraine	29	28	2.4
EU	61	59	5.1
Zambia	3.7	1.5	0.6

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor export policy shifts in Zambia—potential for downward price pressure if export bans are lifted.
• Watch US Midwest weather; dry spells could trigger price rallies.
• Ukrainian and French FOB offers remain attractive for importers—opportunity for short-term procurement.
• Speculators should stay nimble; volatility likely as global harvests progress and macroeconomic signals shift.
• End users: Consider forward contracts for Q3-Q4 to hedge against weather-related supply shocks.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Current Price (USD/kg)	Forecast (3 days)	Trend
CBOT (US)	0.19*	0.19 – 0.20	Stable
Euronext (FR)	0.27	0.27 – 0.28	Slightly Firm
Odesa (UA, FOB)	0.22	0.21 – 0.23	Range-bound
Zambia (local)	0.17*	0.16 – 0.18	Softening

*Indicative price based on current market levels.