Corn Market Surges as Brazil Projects Record Harvests Amid Global Price Stability

The corn market finds itself at a crucial turning point in mid-June 2025. Brazil, the world’s second-largest corn exporter, has sharply revised its 2024-25 grain harvest projection upward in its latest report, underpinned by favorable weather, expanding acreage, and strong technological adoption among farmers. The country’s National Supply Company (Conab) now sees a record 128.3 million tonnes of corn production, up over 12% from last year’s second crop, against the backdrop of robust harvests across the key states of Mato Grosso, Paraná, and others. Meanwhile, prices for key corn grades across Europe, Ukraine, and India are holding steady, reflecting neutral market sentiment globally.

Traders remain focused on weather-driven yield prospects in Brazil and the US, future crop acreage signals, US and Chinese demand, and speculative flows. Improving productivity and a stable global supply base suggest a bearish tilt, but weather volatility and currency moves could still shift the landscape near term. This comprehensive market review synthesizes the latest data and outlooks, highlighting the interplay of North and South American crop cycles, trade flows, and on-the-ground weather risks for the coming quarter.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Product	Origin	Exchange/Location	Delivery Terms	Closing Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Corn (yellow)	France	Paris (FOB)	FOB	0.27	0.00	Neutral
Corn (starch, organic)	India	New Delhi (FOB)	FOB	2.00	-0.02	Weak
Corn	Ukraine	Odesa (FOB)	FOB	0.21	0.00	Neutral
Corn (yellow feed, 98%)	Ukraine	Odesa (FCA)	FCA	0.25	0.00	Neutral
Popcorn	Brazil	Dordrecht (FCA)	FCA	0.75	0.00	Steady
Popcorn (expansion 40/42)	Argentina	Buenos Aires (FOB)	FOB	0.83	0.00	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Brazilian Crop: 2024-25 national corn output projected at 128.3 million tonnes (+12.2% YoY for second crop) due to favorable weather and technology use.
• US Outlook: US planting nearly complete; USDA June acreage and condition reports next key focus.
• China: Steady demand; China continues to import from both US and Brazil amid cautious buying.
• Ukraine/EU: Ukraine’s Black Sea exports are stable despite geopolitical risk; EU feed demand subdued on lower pork/poultry output.
• Speculation: Investment flows remain muted with CTFC positioning showing net-short outlook among funds in CBOT corn.

📊 Fundamental Data & Global Comparison

Country	2024-25 Projected Corn Production (Mt)	2024-25 Corn Exports (Mt)	2024-25 Ending Stocks (Mt)
Brazil	128.3	53.0	14.5
United States	382.7	59.0	51.2
China	288.8	1.0	209.2
Ukraine	28.5	23.0	2.7
EU-27	61.0	4.5	5.8

🌦 Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Brazil: Seasonably dry weather dominates the central and southern regions (Mato Grosso, Paraná), enhancing second crop harvesting and yield outcomes. No substantial frost or flooding is forecast for major corn areas in the next 7 days.
• USA: Plains and Midwest forecasts show above-normal temperatures but adequate precipitation, supporting rapid crop development and keeping drought concerns muted for now.
• Black Sea/Ukraine: Mild, sunny conditions are expected to aid maturing corn stands, with no short-term weather threats detected.
• Argentina/EU: Off-season for corn in Argentina, but early rain outlook for July supports new crop planting. EU corn regions face a slight rainfall deficit, but not yet critical for crop prospects.

📆 Market Drivers, Insights & Trading Outlook

• USDA Reports (Late June): Watch for updated US acreage and quarterly stocks to set the tone for summer volatility.
• Brazil Export Price Pressure: Increased Brazilian corn exports weigh on global prices; risk of further downward drift if harvest pace exceeds expectations.
• Speculative Short Positions: Large short positions among fund traders keep CBOT values capped in the near term.
• Feed & Ethanol Demand: Lower livestock numbers and weak ethanol margins in the US and EU constrain demand recovery.
• Currency Volatility: Watch for USD and BRL moves, which could affect international price competitiveness.

• 🌽 Buyers: Consider spot and short-term coverage to lock in stable prices amid record supply.
• 🚢 Sellers: Forward selling is encouraged while prices hold; expect strain as Brazil’s export season peaks.
• 💹 Speculators: Market offers limited upside unless North American weather deteriorates sharply; monitor funds positioning closely.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Market	Current Price (€/kg)	Forecast Range (€/kg)	Sentiment
CBOT (US Corn Futures)	~0.19 *	0.18 – 0.195	Bearish to Stable
Euronext (Paris, MAIZ)	0.27	0.265 – 0.28	Neutral
Odesa, Ukraine (FOB)	0.21	0.21 – 0.215	Stable

*Converted to €/kg from USD/mt for cross-comparison.