Corn Market Under Pressure: Weak Global Demand and Ample Supply Drive Prices Lower

The global corn market faces intensifying downward pressure as ample supply, weak export demand, and shifting trade dynamics collide. In Ukraine, export prices have continued their decline, settling at $222–225 per ton with port delivery by the end of June, and plunging further for new crop offers. Despite this bearish trend, Ukrainian farmers remain reluctant to liquidate remaining stocks, expressing hope for an eventual rebound. However, a surge of bargain-seeking Asian orders—including large South Korean and Taiwanese tenders at $234–236/ton C&F—is setting a tough price bar, with only low-cost origins able to compete.

Concerns surrounding potential US-China trade talks and logistics costs have sparked a near-term pickup in Asian demand, but the overall sentiment remains subdued as global inventories are projected to swell in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 marketing years. Brazil’s output forecast climb (+1.8 million tons to 131.8 million) further weakens the fundamental backdrop. Ukrainian corn, challenged by restricted EU access, now faces stiff competition in Asia, with delivered offers needing to dip below $190/ton to maintain competitiveness. The corn market is at a crossroads—caught between opportunistic spot purchases, cautious producer selling, and larger structural surpluses on the horizon.

📈 Prices

Origin	Product	Exchange/Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Equivalent (USD/t)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Ukraine	Corn (FOB, Odesa)	—	FOB	0.21	~225	-0.00	Bearish
Ukraine	Corn (feed grade)	—	FCA	0.25	N/A	0.00	Bearish
France	Corn (yellow, FOB Paris)	—	FOB	0.27	N/A	0.00	Neutral
India	Corn (starch, organic)	—	FOB	2.00	N/A	-0.02	Slightly Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine: Export prices are under severe pressure due to limited EU market access and aggressive competition in Asia.
• Asia: Recent tenders from South Korea ( NOFI and KFA ) and Taiwan’s MFIG (Brazilian corn, $236.5/ton C&F) show strong demand for low-cost corn, but at sharply competitive price levels.
• Brazil: Output is forecast to rise by 1.8 million tonnes (USDA June report), boosting global inventories and weighing on prices.
• Global: USDA sees a build-up in global stocks for 2024/25 and 2025/26, exerting further pressure on the market.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA June forecasts point to rising production and stocks, primarily from Brazil and the US.
• Asian purchasing surge reflects opportunistic buying ahead of trade uncertainties, but could prove temporary as buyers switch origins based on price.
• Ukrainian export competitiveness is compromised by port delivery offers needing to stay under $190/t to win Asian business.
• Speculative positioning: Funds remain net short on major exchanges such as CBOT, underpinning a bearish tone.

⛅️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine & Black Sea: Favorable growing weather continues, with adequate moisture and moderate temperatures supporting yield prospects.
• US Corn Belt: Rainfall has replenished soil moisture, but the risk of excess precipitation is being monitored as pollination nears.
• Brazil: Seasonal dryness as the Safrinha corn harvest accelerates, but yields are expected to remain strong overall.
• Europe: Mixed outlook with beneficial rains in western regions, while the southeast remains drier than average.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2023/24 Output (mln t)	2024/25 Forecast (mln t)	2025/26 Forecast (mln t)
USA	389	383	385
Brazil	130	131.8	132
Ukraine	28	27	28
China	288	290	291
EU	61	62	63
World Stocks	312	325	337

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers in Ukraine: Consider gradual sales for old-crop stocks; the outlook for price recovery is weak amid mounting global stocks.
• Buyers/Importers: Take advantage of competitive offers, especially for nearby and autumn deliveries from Ukraine and Brazil.
• Traders: Watch for fund positioning and any surprise moves in US–China negotiations, as well as weather premium development in July.
• End users/feed mills: Favor forward coverage into autumn as global surpluses persist but weather and logistics risks remain.
• Monitor Asian tender activity and adjust export pricing accordingly to remain competitive.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (USD/t)	Forecast (USD/t)	Sentiment
Ukraine, Port FOB	225	222-224	Bearish
CBOT (Front Month)	~175	173-175	Bearish
Euronext (Paris, Nov)	~200	198-200	Bearish
Brazil Export (Santos)	235	233-235	Soft