Corn Market Update: Oil Rally Supports Prices, South American Harvest Caps Gains

The global corn market finds itself at a crossroads as seasonal fundamentals and macroeconomic factors collide in June 2025. Euronext corn futures continued their recovery, buoyed by robust crude oil prices and euro weakness, with the front-month August closing at €195.50/t after a €3 gain. Meanwhile, the US CBOT market saw mild losses on post-holiday Friday trading, reflecting softening demand and substantial harvest progress in South America. Weather conditions in the Midwest US remain favourable, ensuring solid yield prospects, while improved yields in Argentina balance out delays from excessive rain.

Market sentiment is shaped by expectations for USDA export data and cautious central bank policy, preventing sharp rallies despite technical support from energy markets. Merchants and producers are watching currency moves, speculative positioning, and USDA booking flows for cues, while competitive offers from Black Sea and French origins keep global export channels active. For physical traders, a slightly firmer undertone is evident in spot and forward contracts, though oversupply from South America remains a bearish counterweight.

📈 Corn Futures Prices at Key Exchanges

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Sentiment
Euronext	Aug 25	195.50	+3.00	EUR/t	Firm, supported by weak euro & energy
CBOT	Jul 25	431.75	-1.75	US-Cent/bu	Weak, pressured by the S. American supply
DCE (China)	Jul 25	2365.00	-2.00	CNY/t	Soft, high local inventories

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Export Sales: USDA export booking data expected Friday (delayed by US holiday). Traders foresee 600,000-1,200,000 t for 2024/25, and very limited business for 2025/26.
• South America: Argentine corn harvest now 50% complete, with yields in some areas exceeding expectations, but delays from heavy rains persist. Brazil continues to supply the world market competitively.
• USDA Report: Lowered US economic growth outlook fuels macro caution and underpins the US dollar, capping upside for commodities.
• Speculative Positioning: CTA funds remain modestly net short; weak rallies have been quickly sold into, reflecting negative sentiment overall.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Physical Corn Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous
Popcorn	BR	NL – Dordrecht	FCA	0.74	0.75
Popcorn (40/42)	AR	Buenos Aires	FOB	0.82	0.83
Corn, yellow	FR	Paris	FOB	0.26	0.27
Corn, starch (organic)	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.97	2.00
Corn	UA	Odesa	FOB	0.21	0.21
Corn, yellow feed, 98%	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0.25

📉 Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

• US Midwest: Near-ideal growing conditions with above-average rain and moderate temps. No immediate stress for developing corn crops. Yield risk is currently low.
• Argentina: Yields ahead of early-year estimates, but harvest slowed by excessive moisture. Watch for further delays if the wet pattern persists; otherwise, production remains solid at 49 mln t.
• Ukraine/EU: Weather is largely benign, supporting a stable production outlook in France and the Black Sea region.

🌎 Global Production & Inventory Snapshot

• Argentina 2024/25: 49 mln t (steady), harvest just over 50% complete.
• US 2024/25: Yield and acreage watching, but ample stocks expected due to large plantings and good weather.
• EU & Ukraine: French and Ukrainian export flows remain steady, with competitively priced grain supporting destination demand.
• China: Strong stocks, imports stable.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Physical buyers should consider locking in partial forward cover while the market remains rangebound and before any adverse weather impacts US crops.
• Producers with unsold stocks should take advantage of brief rallies, as South American supply overhang may limit further price gains.
• Speculators: Watch for macro-driven volatility linked to currency, oil, and rate expectations. Upside is capped unless US weather shifts markedly drier in July.
• Exporters: Focus on competitive pricing, especially versus Black Sea and French offers for late summer/autumn positions.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
Euronext Aug 25	195.50 EUR/t	194.50 – 197.50 EUR/t	Stable-Firm
CBOT Jul 25	431.75 USc/bu	429.00 – 435.00 USc/bu	Rangebound/Downside Risk
DCE Jul 25	2365 CNY/t	2350 – 2380 CNY/t	Stable